How it works
Every number on TD Signal comes from a chain of simple, visible steps. Here's the math behind both models.
Touchdown model
Team touchdowns
Projected points from the spread and total, times about 0.105 touchdowns per point.
Player share
His portion of team touchdown chances, weighted toward red-zone carries and targets.
Adjustments
The opponent's touchdowns allowed to his position, wind and rain, and whether his role is growing.
Model accuracy
The touchdown model is tested against every past game: it re-runs each week using only what was known beforehand, then checks who actually scored. A correction layer is refit to those results every morning, so the model keeps learning from its misses.
Points on the dashed diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Gray is the raw formula, orange is after the correction layer. Accuracy gain compares prediction error (Brier score) on the most recent quarter of weeks, which the correction layer never saw while fitting.
Prop model
Pace
Mostly the team's own plays per game, partly the opponent's, nudged for high or low totals.
Game script
Underdogs throw more and favorites run more: each point of spread shifts pass rate about a third of a percent.
Volume
Team pass attempts or carries times the player's target or carry share, adjusted for his usage trend.
Efficiency
Catch rate and yards per catch, carry, or attempt from his season, the core of each projection.
Defense
The opponent's yardage rank (up to about 8% either way) plus how it defends his position.
Small samples
A few big games can skew an early-season average, so until about Week 10 each player's numbers blend in last season's (same team only). Four games this season counts for 50%, nine or more for 100%.
Injuries
When a player is ruled out, his teammates inherit his workload: the next running back up takes most of his carries, and his targets spread across the other receivers. Each player keeps his own efficiency.
Conditions
Wind and rain for passing, a small home-field bump, a turf speed bump, and a dome boost for passers.
Receptions use a Poisson distribution and yardage uses a normal distribution with a spread that fits each stat (passing yards are steadier than receiving yards). The floor and ceiling cover the middle 80% of outcomes. For now the line is the half-point nearest each player's season average; once sportsbook lines are connected, they'll replace it so you can see true value.