TDSIGNAL
Top plays

Touchdown model

Each player's chance to score at least once. The closer the ball is to the end zone, the likelier the score. Tap any player for the math.

1 9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LAC 66%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
40%Share of team TD chances
+4%LAC defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
6TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.40 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 1.10 expected TDs = 67% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 66% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Kenneth Walker III page

2 7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHI 63%
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
36%Share of team TD chances
−2%CHI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
5TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.36 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.92 expected TDs = 60% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 63% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Bijan Robinson page

3 33Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL vs GB 61%
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
36%Share of team TD chances
+25%GB defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
7TDs this season
−9%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.36 × 1.25 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 1.20 expected TDs = 70% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 61% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Javonte Williams page

4 2Ashton JeantyRB, LV vs BUF 61%
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
30%Share of team TD chances
+19%BUF defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.29 × 1.19 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.87 expected TDs = 58% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 61% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Ashton Jeanty page

5 23Kyren WilliamsRB, LA vs ARI 61%
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
29%Share of team TD chances
−2%ARI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
5TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.29 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.99 expected TDs = 63% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 61% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Kyren Williams page

6 23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WAS 59%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
29%Share of team TD chances
−13%WAS defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
5TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.29 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.81 expected TDs = 55% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 59% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Christian McCaffrey page

7 28Jonathan TaylorRB, IND vs TEN 59%
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
37%Share of team TD chances
−8%TEN defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
6TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.37 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.88 expected TDs = 59% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 59% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Jonathan Taylor page

8 12Puka NacuaWR, LA vs ARI 52%
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+28%ARI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.14 × 1.28 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.64 expected TDs = 47% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 52% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Puka Nacua page

9 4James CookRB, BUF vs LV 52%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
26%Share of team TD chances
−2%LV defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
5TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.26 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.76 expected TDs = 53% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 52% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full James Cook page

10 4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery out 51%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
34%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.34 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.65 expected TDs = 48% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 51% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Woody Marks page

11 22Derrick HenryRB, BAL vs CLE 50%
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
39%Share of team TD chances
−18%CLE defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
8TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.39 × 0.82 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.79 expected TDs = 54% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 50% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Derrick Henry page

12 4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATL 50%
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
27%Share of team TD chances
−2%ATL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.27 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.69 expected TDs = 50% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 50% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full D'Andre Swift page

13 7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PIT 48%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
27%Share of team TD chances
−2%PIT defense vs RBs
+3%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.27 × 0.98 × 1.03 × 1.00 = 0.53 expected TDs = 41% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 48% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Bucky Irving page

14 10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BAL 47%
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
28%Share of team TD chances
−2%BAL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.28 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.54 expected TDs = 42% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 47% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Quinshon Judkins page

15 30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TB 46%
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
22%Share of team TD chances
−13%TB defense vs RBs
+3%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+9%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.22 × 0.87 × 1.03 × 1.08 = 0.47 expected TDs = 38% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 46% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Jaylen Warren page

16 17Josh AllenQB, BUF vs LV 45%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
22%Share of team TD chances
+23%LV defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
8TDs this season
−9%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.22 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.79 expected TDs = 55% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 45% chance to score. Rated elite.

Full Josh Allen page

17 44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NO 45%
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
+29%NO defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.17 × 1.29 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.51 expected TDs = 40% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 45% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Cam Skattebo page

18 38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJ 45%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
21%Share of team TD chances
+8%NYJ defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.21 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.58 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 45% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Rhamondre Stevenson page

19 20Tony PollardRB, TEN vs IND 44%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
26%Share of team TD chances
+8%IND defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.26 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.57 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 44% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Tony Pollard page

20 30Chuba HubbardRB, CAR vs PHI 44%
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
28%Share of team TD chances
−8%PHI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
5TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.28 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.57 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 44% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Chuba Hubbard page

21 9Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG vs NO 43%
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
22%Share of team TD chances
−4%NO defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.22 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.49 expected TDs = 39% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 43% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Isaiah Likely page

22 17Davante AdamsWR, LA vs ARI 43%
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+28%ARI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.16 × 1.28 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.69 expected TDs = 50% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 43% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Davante Adams page

23 23Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA vs DEN 42%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
26%Share of team TD chances
+4%DEN defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−6%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.26 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.65 expected TDs = 48% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 42% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Emanuel Wilson page

24 32MarShawn LloydRB, GB vs DAL 41%
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
+14%DAL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.20 × 1.14 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.66 expected TDs = 48% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 41% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full MarShawn Lloyd page

25 85George KittleTE, SF vs WAS 41%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
+43%WAS defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.13 × 1.43 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.59 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 41% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full George Kittle page

26 11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA vs DEN 40%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
23%Share of team TD chances
−8%DEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
7TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.23 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.46 expected TDs = 37% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 40% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Jaxon Smith-Njigba page

27 84Tyler WarrenTE, IND vs TEN 40%
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
−14%TEN defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.16 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.38 expected TDs = 32% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 40% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Tyler Warren page

28 8Omarion HamptonRB, LAC vs KC 40%
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
27%Share of team TD chances
−3%KC defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.27 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.44 expected TDs = 36% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 40% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Omarion Hampton page

29 9Christian WatsonWR, GB vs DAL 39%
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
22%Share of team TD chances
+2%DAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
6TDs this season
−8%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.22 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.63 expected TDs = 47% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 39% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Christian Watson page

30 88CeeDee LambWR, DAL vs GB 39%
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
−8%GB defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.17 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.42 expected TDs = 34% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 39% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full CeeDee Lamb page

31 85Trey McBrideTE, ARI vs LA 38%
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
−14%LA defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+9%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.20 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.34 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 38% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Trey McBride page

32 20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NE 38%
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
18%Share of team TD chances
−2%NE defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+11%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.18 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.32 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 38% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Breece Hall page

33 5Mike EvansWR, SF vs WAS 38%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+13%WAS defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.16 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.59 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 38% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Mike Evans page

34 25Kyle MonangaiRB, CHI vs ATL 37%
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
19%Share of team TD chances
−2%ATL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.19 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.52 expected TDs = 41% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Kyle Monangai page

35 0Matthew GoldenWR, GB vs DAL 37%
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+2%DAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.16 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.48 expected TDs = 38% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Matthew Golden page

36 19Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF vs WAS 37%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
+13%WAS defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.12 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.41 expected TDs = 34% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Deebo Samuel Sr. page

37 88Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT vs TB 37%
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
+6%TB defense vs TEs
−8%Weather
+4%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.20 × 1.06 × 0.92 × 1.04 = 0.44 expected TDs = 36% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Pat Freiermuth page

38 41Alvin KamaraRB, NO vs NYG 37%
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
+4%NYG defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.13 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.36 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Alvin Kamara page

39 33Bhayshul TutenRB, JAX vs HOU 36%
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
21%Share of team TD chances
−8%HOU defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.21 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.48 expected TDs = 38% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 36% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Bhayshul Tuten page

40 1Malik NabersWR, NYG vs NO 36%
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
+8%NO defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.17 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.46 expected TDs = 37% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 36% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Malik Nabers page

41 89Brock BowersTE, LV vs BUF 36%
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−14%BUF defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+9%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.13 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.31 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 36% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Brock Bowers page

42 85Tucker KraftTE, GB vs DAL 35%
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+6%DAL defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.11 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.36 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 35% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Tucker Kraft page

43 27J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN vs SEA 34%
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
−2%SEA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.20 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.43 expected TDs = 35% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full J.K. Dobbins page

44 5Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ vs NE 34%
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
+2%NE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.20 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.42 expected TDs = 34% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Garrett Wilson page

45 83Juwan JohnsonTE, NO vs NYG 34%
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
15%Share of team TD chances
−4%NYG defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.15 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.37 expected TDs = 31% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Juwan Johnson page

46 14Michael WilsonWR, ARI vs LA 34%
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+13%LA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.16 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.39 expected TDs = 32% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Michael Wilson page

47 44Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE vs BAL 34%
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+6%BAL defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.16 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.34 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Harold Fannin Jr. page

48 39Dameon PierceRB, PHI vs CAR 34%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+8%CAR defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+13%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.09 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Dameon Pierce page

49 4Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR vs PHI 33%
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
+8%PHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.17 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.39 expected TDs = 33% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 33% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Tetairoa McMillan page

50 10Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI vs ATL 33%
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−3%ATL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.11 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.31 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 33% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Luther Burden III page

51 4Jeremiyah LoveRB, ARI vs LA 33%
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
−13%LA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+9%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.15 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 33% chance to score. Rated strong.

Full Jeremiyah Love page

52 11Parker WashingtonWR, JAX vs HOU 33%
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+8%HOU defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.16 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.37 expected TDs = 31% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 33% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Parker Washington page

53 26Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI vs CAR 32%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
+8%CAR defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.13 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 32% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Saquon Barkley page

54 4Zay FlowersWR, BAL vs CLE 32%
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
+13%CLE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.10 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.29 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 32% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Zay Flowers page

55 12Chris OlaveWR, NO vs NYG 31%
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
+2%NYG defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.12 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.29 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 31% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Chris Olave page

56 0Braelon AllenRB, NYJ vs NE 30%
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
−2%NE defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.20 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.40 expected TDs = 33% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Braelon Allen page

57 89Mark AndrewsTE, BAL vs CLE 30%
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+6%CLE defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.11 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.28 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Mark Andrews page

58 3Stefon DiggsWR, WAS vs SF 30%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
−3%SF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.16 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.34 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Stefon Diggs page

59 4Wan'Dale RobinsonWR, TEN vs IND 30%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
−3%IND defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.17 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.35 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Wan'Dale Robinson page

60 15Brian RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHI 30%
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
18%Share of team TD chances
−2%CHI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.18 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.46 expected TDs = 37% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Brian Robinson page

61 89Tyler HigbeeTE, LA vs ARI 29%
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+15%ARI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.07 × 1.15 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.31 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Tyler Higbee page

62 4Rashee RiceWR, KC vs LAC 29%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+2%LAC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.08 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.25 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Rashee Rice page

63 22Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB, WAS vs SF 29%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
−8%SF defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.17 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.35 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Jacory Croskey-Merritt page

64 2Emeka EgbukaWR, TB vs PIT 29%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
18%Share of team TD chances
−13%PIT defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.18 × 0.87 × 0.92 × 1.00 = 0.28 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Emeka Egbuka page

65 1Tre TuckerWR, LV vs BUF 29%
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+22%BUF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.09 × 1.22 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Tre Tucker page

66 1Xavier WorthyWR, KC vs LAC 29%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
+2%LAC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.12 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.31 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Xavier Worthy page

67 88AJ BarnerTE, SEA vs DEN 29%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+6%DEN defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.11 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full AJ Barner page

68 3George PickensWR, DAL vs GB 29%
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
−8%GB defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.12 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full George Pickens page

69 32TreVeyon HendersonRB, NE vs NYJ 29%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+8%NYJ defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.11 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.31 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full TreVeyon Henderson page

70 10Keenan AllenWR, IND vs TEN 29%
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
−3%TEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.12 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.32 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Keenan Allen page

71 12Nico CollinsWR, HOU vs JAX 29%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.14 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.26 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Nico Collins page

72 14Devaughn VeleWR, NO vs NYG 29%
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+2%NYG defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.14 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.35 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Devaughn Vele page

73 2DJ MooreWR, BUF vs LV 29%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+2%LV defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.07 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full DJ Moore page

74 12RJ HarveyRB, DEN vs SEA 28%
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−2%SEA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.11 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 28% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full RJ Harvey page

75 3Jakobi MeyersWR, JAX vs HOU 28%
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
+8%HOU defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.12 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.33 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 28% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Jakobi Meyers page

76 24Blake CorumRB, LA vs ARI 27%
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−2%ARI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.11 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.33 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Blake Corum page

77 12Denzel BostonWR, CLE vs BAL 27%
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
19%Share of team TD chances
−13%BAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.19 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.32 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Denzel Boston page

78 87Jake FergusonTE, DAL vs GB 27%
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−4%GB defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.10 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Jake Ferguson page

79 5Kendre MillerRB, NO vs NYG 27%
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
15%Share of team TD chances
+4%NYG defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.15 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.41 expected TDs = 34% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Kendre Miller page

80 1Rachaad WhiteRB, WAS vs SF 27%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−8%SF defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.14 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Rachaad White page

81 34Keaton MitchellRB, LAC vs KC 27%
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−3%KC defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.14 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.27 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Keaton Mitchell page

82 82Cody WhiteWR, LV vs BUF 26%
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
+22%BUF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−10%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.13 × 1.22 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.45 expected TDs = 36% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 26% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Cody White page

83 87Romeo DoubsWR, NE vs NYJ 26%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%NYJ defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.35 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 26% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Romeo Doubs page

84 17Terry McLaurinWR, WAS vs SF 26%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%SF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 26% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Terry McLaurin page

85 18Jalen CokerWR, CAR vs PHI 25%
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+8%PHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.14 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Jalen Coker page

86 87Travis KelceTE, KC vs LAC 25%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−14%LAC defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Travis Kelce page

87 0Keon ColemanWR, BUF vs LV 25%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+2%LV defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.11 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.34 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Keon Coleman page

88 5Drake LondonWR, ATL vs CHI 25%
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+2%CHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.07 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Drake London page

89 88Dallas GoedertTE, PHI vs CAR 25%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+21%CAR defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.08 × 1.21 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Dallas Goedert page

90 1Jalen HurtsQB, PHI vs CAR 25%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+29%CAR defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.11 × 1.29 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Jalen Hurts page

91 17Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN vs SEA 25%
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−3%SEA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.10 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Jaylen Waddle page

92 14Courtland SuttonWR, DEN vs SEA 24%
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%SEA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.26 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Courtland Sutton page

93 86Dalton KincaidTE, BUF vs LV 24%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+34%LV defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.06 × 1.34 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Dalton Kincaid page

94 2Josh DownsWR, IND vs TEN 24%
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−3%TEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.23 expected TDs = 20% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Josh Downs page

95 4DK MetcalfWR, PIT vs TB 24%
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−3%TB defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.10 × 0.97 × 0.92 × 0.96 = 0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full DK Metcalf page

96 15Rome OdunzeWR, CHI vs ATL 24%
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−3%ATL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.08 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Rome Odunze page

97 36George HolaniRB, SEA vs DEN 23%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
+4%DEN defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.13 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.31 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full George Holani page

98 84Colston LovelandTE, CHI vs ATL 23%
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+6%ATL defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.07 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Colston Loveland page

99 1Kenny GainwellRB, TB vs PIT 23%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−2%PIT defense vs RBs
+3%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.14 × 0.98 × 1.03 × 1.00 = 0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Kenny Gainwell page

100 10Khalil ShakirWR, BUF vs LV 23%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+2%LV defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.08 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.25 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Khalil Shakir page

101 23Najee HarrisRB, NYG vs NO 23%
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+29%NO defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−14%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.14 × 1.29 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.46 expected TDs = 37% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Najee Harris page

102 22Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI vs LA 23%
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−13%LA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.13 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Tyler Allgeier page

103 3DeMario DouglasWR, NE vs NYJ 23%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−3%NYJ defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.11 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full DeMario Douglas page

104 86Oronde Gadsden IITE, LAC vs KC 23%
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+21%KC defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.09 × 1.21 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Oronde Gadsden II page

105 16Kenyon SadiqTE, NYJ vs NE 23%
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−14%NE defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.10 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.19 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Kenyon Sadiq page

106 13Dontayvion WicksWR, PHI vs CAR 23%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−15%CAR defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.13 × 0.85 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Dontayvion Wicks page

107 26Kaleb JohnsonRB, GB vs DAL 22%
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+14%DAL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−5%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.09 × 1.14 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.32 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Kaleb Johnson page

108 19Ryan FlournoyWR, DAL vs GB 22%
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−8%GB defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.22 expected TDs = 20% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full Ryan Flournoy page

109 1KC ConcepcionWR, CLE vs BAL 22%
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−13%BAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.09 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated solid.

Full KC Concepcion page

110 8Kyle PittsTE, ATL vs CHI 22%
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−23%CHI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.09 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.18 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Kyle Pitts page

111 80Darius CooperWR, PHI vs CAR 22%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
−15%CAR defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−5%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.16 × 0.85 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.32 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Darius Cooper page

112 85Hunter HenryTE, NE vs NYJ 22%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−23%NYJ defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.10 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.19 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Hunter Henry page

113 14Kalif RaymondWR, CHI vs ATL 22%
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−3%ATL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.08 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.19 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Kalif Raymond page

114 88Darren WallerTE, CAR vs PHI 22%
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−23%PHI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.10 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Darren Waller page

115 19Josh CameronWR, JAX vs HOU 21%
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+8%HOU defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−5%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.11 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Josh Cameron page

116 85Brenton StrangeTE, JAX vs HOU 21%
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−23%HOU defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.08 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.16 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Brenton Strange page

117 4Konata MumpfieldWR, LA vs ARI 21%
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+28%ARI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.06 × 1.28 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.28 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Konata Mumpfield page

118 10Drake MayeQB, NE vs NYJ 21%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−23%NYJ defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Drake Maye page

119 13John Metchie IIIWR, CAR vs PHI 20%
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+8%PHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.08 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full John Metchie III page

120 86Efton Chism IIIWR, NE vs NYJ 20%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−3%NYJ defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.08 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Efton Chism III page

121 4Jahan DotsonWR, ATL vs CHI 20%
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+2%CHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.09 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.25 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Jahan Dotson page

122 14Antonio WilliamsWR, WAS vs SF 20%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−3%SF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.09 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Antonio Williams page

123 1Cam WardQB, TEN vs IND 20%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+0%IND defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.14 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.26 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Cam Ward page

124 5Elic AyomanorWR, TEN vs IND 20%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%IND defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Elic Ayomanor page

125 17Germie BernardWR, PIT vs TB 20%
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−3%TB defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.08 × 0.97 × 0.92 × 1.04 = 0.17 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Germie Bernard page

126 32Tyler GoodsonRB, DAL vs GB 19%
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+25%GB defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−6%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.08 × 1.25 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.29 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Tyler Goodson page

127 86Dalton SchultzTE, HOU vs JAX 19%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−4%JAX defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.07 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Dalton Schultz page

128 23Skyy MooreWR, GB vs DAL 19%
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+2%DAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.08 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.26 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Skyy Moore page

129 10Emmett JohnsonRB, KC vs LAC 19%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+4%LAC defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.08 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Emmett Johnson page

130 5Jayden DanielsQB, WAS vs SF 19%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+0%SF defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.06 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Jayden Daniels page

131 14Carnell TateWR, TEN vs IND 19%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−3%IND defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.07 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.14 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Carnell Tate page

132 14Roman WilsonWR, PIT vs TB 19%
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−3%TB defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.11 × 0.97 × 0.92 × 0.96 = 0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Roman Wilson page

133 13Jaylin NoelWR, HOU vs JAX 19%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.09 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.17 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Jaylin Noel page

134 4Mike Washington Jr.RB, LV vs BUF 19%
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+19%BUF defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−6%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.09 × 1.19 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Mike Washington Jr. page

135 2Tyjae SpearsRB, TEN vs IND 19%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+8%IND defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.08 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Tyjae Spears page

136 84Gunnar HelmTE, TEN vs IND 18%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+15%IND defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.08 × 1.15 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.17 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Gunnar Helm page

137 26Ty JohnsonRB, BUF vs LV 18%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−2%LV defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−5%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.08 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Ty Johnson page

138 7Rashod BatemanWR, BAL vs CLE 18%
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+13%CLE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.08 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Rashod Bateman page

139 7Jacoby BrissettQB, ARI vs LA 18%
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+23%LA defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.08 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.19 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Jacoby Brissett page

140 13Brock PurdyQB, SF vs WAS 18%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+0%WAS defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.05 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.17 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Brock Purdy page

141 6Tyler ShoughQB, NO vs NYG 18%
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+23%NYG defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.07 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.19 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Tyler Shough page

142 13Laquon TreadwellWR, IND vs TEN 18%
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−3%TEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.07 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.19 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Laquon Treadwell page

143 17Kendrick BourneWR, ARI vs LA 18%
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+13%LA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.07 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Kendrick Bourne page

144 19Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU vs JAX 18%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.07 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Xavier Hutchinson page

145 22Rashid ShaheedWR, SEA vs DEN 17%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−8%DEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.07 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.13 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Rashid Shaheed page

146 4Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE vs BAL 17%
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+0%BAL defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.06 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Deshaun Watson page

147 1Evan EngramTE, DEN vs SEA 17%
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−4%SEA defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.07 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Evan Engram page

148 10Justin HerbertQB, LAC vs KC 17%
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−20%KC defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.09 × 0.80 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Justin Herbert page

149 24Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX vs HOU 17%
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−8%HOU defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−9%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.14 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Chris Rodriguez Jr. page

150 17Daniel JonesQB, IND vs TEN 17%
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+0%TEN defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.07 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.18 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Daniel Jones page

151 15Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC vs KC 17%
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−20%KC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.10 × 0.80 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.14 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Ladd McConkey page

152 18Isaiah WilliamsWR, NYJ vs NE 17%
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+2%NE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.08 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Isaiah Williams page

153 88Malachi FieldsWR, NYG vs NO 17%
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+8%NO defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.08 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.18 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Malachi Fields page

154 88Cade OttonTE, TB vs PIT 17%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
−4%PIT defense vs TEs
−8%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.06 × 0.96 × 0.92 × 0.96 = 0.10 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Cade Otton page

155 17Darnell MooneyWR, NYG vs NO 17%
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+8%NO defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.06 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.16 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Darnell Mooney page

156 18Bryce LanceWR, NO vs NYG 16%
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+2%NYG defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.07 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.17 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Bryce Lance page

157 20Seth McGowanRB, IND vs TEN 16%
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−8%TEN defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.08 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.22 expected TDs = 20% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Seth McGowan page

158 10Cooper KuppWR, SEA vs DEN 16%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−8%DEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.08 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.17 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Cooper Kupp page

159 26Kaelon BlackRB, SF vs WAS 16%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−13%WAS defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.08 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Kaelon Black page

160 86Jalen BrooksWR, ARI vs LA 16%
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+13%LA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.06 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Jalen Brooks page

161 19Malik BensonWR, LV vs BUF 15%
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+22%BUF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.06 × 1.22 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Malik Benson page

162 9Tre HarrisWR, LAC vs KC 15%
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−20%KC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.09 × 0.80 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Tre Harris page

163 10Bo NixQB, DEN vs SEA 15%
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−23%SEA defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.09 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Bo Nix page

164 11Jalen RoyalsWR, KC vs LAC 15%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+2%LAC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.07 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Jalen Royals page

165 19Marvin Mims Jr.WR, DEN vs SEA 15%
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−3%SEA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.05 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.11 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Marvin Mims Jr. page

166 7C.J. StroudQB, HOU vs JAX 15%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+0%JAX defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.06 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.14 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full C.J. Stroud page

167 15Patrick MahomesQB, KC vs LAC 15%
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+23%LAC defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.04 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Patrick Mahomes page

168 43Justice HillRB, BAL vs CLE 15%
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−18%CLE defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.07 × 0.82 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Justice Hill page

169 4Jacob CowingWR, SF vs WAS 14%
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+13%WAS defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.05 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.17 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Jacob Cowing page

170 9Makai LemonWR, PHI vs CAR 14%
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−15%CAR defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.05 × 0.85 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.10 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Makai Lemon page

171 17Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB vs PIT 14%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−13%PIT defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.09 × 0.87 × 0.92 × 0.92 = 0.12 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Ted Hurst III page

172 14Chris Godwin Jr.WR, TB vs PIT 14%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
−13%PIT defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.06 × 0.87 × 0.92 × 1.00 = 0.09 expected TDs = 8% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.

Full Chris Godwin Jr. page

173 81Devontez WalkerWR, BAL vs CLE 13%
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+13%CLE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.06 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 13% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Devontez Walker page

174 8Lamar JacksonQB, BAL vs CLE 13%
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−23%CLE defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.05 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.09 expected TDs = 9% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 13% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Lamar Jackson page

175 1Quentin JohnstonWR, LAC vs KC 13%
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−20%KC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.05 × 0.80 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.07 expected TDs = 7% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 13% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Quentin Johnston page

176 9Bryce YoungQB, CAR vs PHI 12%
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+45%PHI defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.04 × 1.45 × 1.00 × 0.96 = 0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Bryce Young page

177 3Jerry JeudyWR, CLE vs BAL 12%
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−13%BAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.05 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.09 expected TDs = 8% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Jerry Jeudy page

178 85Chig OkonkwoTE, WAS vs SF 12%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
−23%SF defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.04 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.07 expected TDs = 7% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Chig Okonkwo page

179 17Tim PatrickWR, NYJ vs NE 12%
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+2%NE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.05 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.11 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Tim Patrick page

180 9Matthew StaffordQB, LA vs ARI 12%
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+0%ARI defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.04 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Matthew Stafford page

181 17Zachariah BranchWR, ATL vs CHI 12%
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+2%CHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.05 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Zachariah Branch page

182 28AJ DillonRB, CAR vs PHI 11%
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−8%PHI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.07 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 11% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full AJ Dillon page

183 6Baker MayfieldQB, TB vs PIT 10%
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−23%PIT defense vs QBs
+3%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.05 × 0.77 × 1.03 × 0.92 = 0.07 expected TDs = 7% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 10% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Baker Mayfield page

184 38Jaleel McLaughlinRB, CLE vs BAL 10%
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−2%BAL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−6%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.10 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 10% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Jaleel McLaughlin page

185 16Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX vs HOU 9%
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
+23%HOU defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.02 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 1.04 = 0.06 expected TDs = 6% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 9% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Trevor Lawrence page

186 8Aaron RodgersQB, PIT vs TB 9%
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−23%TB defense vs QBs
+3%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.05 × 0.77 × 1.03 × 1.00 = 0.08 expected TDs = 8% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 9% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Aaron Rodgers page

187 7Geno SmithQB, NYJ vs NE 9%
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
3%Share of team TD chances
+0%NE defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.03 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.05 expected TDs = 5% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 9% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Geno Smith page

188 9Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL vs CHI 8%
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
+23%CHI defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.02 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.07 expected TDs = 6% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 8% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Michael Penix Jr. page

189 4Dak PrescottQB, DAL vs GB 8%
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
3%Share of team TD chances
−23%GB defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.03 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.06 expected TDs = 6% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 8% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Dak Prescott page

190 21Travis HomerRB, PIT vs TB 8%
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−13%TB defense vs RBs
+3%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−8%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.09 × 0.87 × 1.03 × 1.00 = 0.17 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 8% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Travis Homer page

191 14Sam DarnoldQB, SEA vs DEN 7%
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
+0%DEN defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.06 expected TDs = 5% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 7% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Sam Darnold page

192 10Jordan LoveQB, GB vs DAL 6%
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
−23%DAL defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.02 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.04 expected TDs = 4% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 6% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Jordan Love page

193 19Jameis WinstonQB, NYG vs NO 6%
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
−23%NO defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.02 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 = 0.04 expected TDs = 4% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 6% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Jameis Winston page

194 8Kirk CousinsQB, LV vs BUF 6%
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
−23%BUF defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.02 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.92 = 0.04 expected TDs = 4% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 6% chance to score. Rated dart throw.

Full Kirk Cousins page