Player props
Every projection is built step by step: pace, game script, volume, efficiency, then defense, weather, venue, and role. The ring is his chance to go over the sportsbook line, or the line nearest his season average when no book line is posted. Tap a prop to see every step.
1Cam WardQB, TEN vs INDPassing yards: 203 proj, avg 182
68%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Pass attempts
›5.8Yards per attempt
›211Model
›203Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+4%IND pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 146Avg line 182.5Projection 203Ceiling 261
The ring shows a
68% chance he goes over 182.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Brock PurdyQB, SF vs WASPassing yards: 262 proj, avg 240
65%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Pass attempts
›9.3Yards per attempt
›269Model
›262Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+9%WAS pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 188Avg line 239.5Projection 262Ceiling 335
The ring shows a
65% chance he goes over 239.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Kirk CousinsQB, LV vs BUFPassing yards: 276 proj, avg 254
65%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Pass attempts
›7.4Yards per attempt
›284Model
›276Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+5%BUF pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 199Avg line 253.5Projection 276Ceiling 354
The ring shows a
65% chance he goes over 253.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85George KittleTE, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 72 proj, avg 55
64%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.2Targets
›88%Catch rate
›5.4Receptions
›14.4Yards per catch
›78Model
›72Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+25%WAS vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 55.5Projection 72Ceiling 129
The ring shows a
64% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
26Kaleb JohnsonRB, GB vs DALRushing yards: 32 proj, avg 27
63%
60.3Projected plays
›33%Run rate
›19.6Team carries
›39%Carry share
›7.6Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›34Model
›32Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
+2%Game script
+8%DAL run D
+4%DAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 26.5Projection 32Ceiling 52
The ring shows a
63% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
82Cody WhiteWR, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 22
63%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›50%Catch rate
›1.6Receptions
›17.9Yards per catch
›29Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+13%BUF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 21.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
63% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Najee HarrisRB, NYG vs NORushing yards: 29 proj, avg 24
62%
65.7Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›28.7Team carries
›26%Carry share
›7.4Carries
›4.1Yards per carry
›31Model
›29Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−1%Game script
+7%NO run D
+8%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 24.5Projection 29Ceiling 48
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Kyren WilliamsRB, LA vs ARIRushing yards: 83 proj, avg 71
62%
69.4Projected plays
›39%Run rate
›27.3Team carries
›62%Carry share
›16.9Carries
›5.2Yards per carry
›88Model
›83Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+13%Game script
+3%ARI run D
−1%ARI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 30Avg line 70.5Projection 83Ceiling 137
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 70.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Josh AllenQB, BUF vs LVPassing yards: 259 proj, avg 242
62%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Pass attempts
›8.5Yards per attempt
›265Model
›259Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+6%LV pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 186Avg line 241.5Projection 259Ceiling 332
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 241.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Tre TuckerWR, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 61 proj, avg 49
62%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›15.9Yards per catch
›65Model
›61Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+13%BUF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 49.5Projection 61Ceiling 109
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 6.4 proj, avg 5.8
61%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›28%Target share
›9.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Model
›6.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3.2Avg line 5.5Projection 6.4Ceiling 9.6
The ring shows a
61% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NORushing yards: 64 proj, avg 56
61%
65.7Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›28.7Team carries
›52%Carry share
›14.8Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›67Model
›64Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−1%Game script
+7%NO run D
+8%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 23Avg line 55.5Projection 64Ceiling 105
The ring shows a
61% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL vs CHIPassing yards: 242 proj, avg 228
60%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Pass attempts
›7.8Yards per attempt
›247Model
›242Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%CHI pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 174Avg line 228.5Projection 242Ceiling 311
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 228.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Jacoby BrissettQB, ARI vs LAPassing yards: 243 proj, avg 229
60%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Pass attempts
›5.3Yards per attempt
›248Model
›243Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−4%LA pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 175Avg line 229.5Projection 243Ceiling 312
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 229.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Dallas GoedertTE, PHI vs CARReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 3.9
60%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.6Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.3Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
+12%CAR vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 3.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.8
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
32MarShawn LloydRB, GB vs DALRushing yards: 26 proj, avg 22
60%
60.3Projected plays
›33%Run rate
›19.6Team carries
›43%Carry share
›8.5Carries
›3.2Yards per carry
›27Model
›26Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
+2%Game script
+8%DAL run D
+4%DAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 22.5Projection 26Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Puka NacuaWR, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 130 proj, avg 109
60%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›12.1Targets
›80%Catch rate
›9.7Receptions
›14.1Yards per catch
›137Model
›130Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 27Avg line 109.5Projection 130Ceiling 233
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 109.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Josh AllenQB, BUF vs LVRushing yards: 53 proj, avg 43
60%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›30.6Team carries
›27%Carry share
›8.4Carries
›6.7Yards per carry
›56Model
›53Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+3%Game script
+6%LV run D
+17%LV vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 43.5Projection 53Ceiling 100
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Zachariah BranchWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 1.8
60%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.3Targets
›91%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 1.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
33Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL vs GBReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 2.9
60%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.8Targets
›84%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
+14%GB vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 2.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Oronde Gadsden IITE, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 28
60%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.2Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›12.5Yards per catch
›35Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
+12%KC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 28.5Projection 34Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Mike EvansWR, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 77 proj, avg 65
60%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›7.5Targets
›71%Catch rate
›5.3Receptions
›15.2Yards per catch
›81Model
›77Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 65.5Projection 77Ceiling 138
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 65.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Jalen HurtsQB, PHI vs CARPassing yards: 203 proj, avg 193
60%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Pass attempts
›5.9Yards per attempt
›207Model
›203Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+2%CAR pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 146Avg line 192.5Projection 203Ceiling 261
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 192.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Jalen HurtsQB, PHI vs CARRushing yards: 28 proj, avg 23
59%
58.9Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›22%Carry share
›5.2Carries
›5.7Yards per carry
›30Model
›28Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−0%Game script
+7%CAR run D
+21%CAR vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 23.5Projection 28Ceiling 54
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Mike EvansWR, SF vs WASReceptions: 5.2 proj, avg 4.8
59%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›7.5Targets
›71%Catch rate
›5.3Model
›5.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.3Avg line 4.5Projection 5.2Ceiling 8.1
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Ashton JeantyRB, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 39 proj, avg 34
59%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›5.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›41Model
›39Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+11%BUF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 33.5Projection 39Ceiling 70
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 33.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85George KittleTE, SF vs WASReceptions: 5.2 proj, avg 4.6
59%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.2Targets
›88%Catch rate
›5.4Model
›5.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+25%WAS vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.3Avg line 4.5Projection 5.2Ceiling 8.1
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 20
59%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›9.0Yards per catch
›24Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+17%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 19.5Projection 23Ceiling 41
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Konata MumpfieldWR, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 19
59%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›3.0Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.4Receptions
›17.1Yards per catch
›24Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 19.5Projection 23Ceiling 41
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Dallas GoedertTE, PHI vs CARReceiving yards: 46 proj, avg 40
59%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.6Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.3Receptions
›11.2Yards per catch
›48Model
›46Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
+12%CAR vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 39.5Projection 46Ceiling 82
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 39.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Wan'Dale RobinsonWR, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 35
59%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.9Targets
›73%Catch rate
›5.0Receptions
›8.6Yards per catch
›43Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 35.5Projection 41Ceiling 74
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Jordan LoveQB, GB vs DALPassing yards: 272 proj, avg 259
58%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Pass attempts
›6.8Yards per attempt
›277Model
›272Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 196Avg line 259.5Projection 272Ceiling 349
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 259.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12RJ HarveyRB, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 3.9
58%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›86%Catch rate
›4.2Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−1%SEA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 3.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.7
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Carnell TateWR, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 63 proj, avg 55
58%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›23%Target share
›8.3Targets
›62%Catch rate
›5.1Receptions
›12.8Yards per catch
›65Model
›63Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 54.5Projection 63Ceiling 112
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 54.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Ashton JeantyRB, LV vs BUFReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 3.9
58%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›5.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+11%BUF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 3.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Tucker KraftTE, GB vs DALReceiving yards: 56 proj, avg 50
58%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.2Targets
›71%Catch rate
›4.4Receptions
›13.2Yards per catch
›59Model
›56Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+3%DAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 49.5Projection 56Ceiling 101
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Drake LondonWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 6.1 proj, avg 5.5
58%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›9.3Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.4Model
›6.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3.0Avg line 5.5Projection 6.1Ceiling 9.3
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Dalton KincaidTE, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 60 proj, avg 52
58%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.1Targets
›82%Catch rate
›3.4Receptions
›18.6Yards per catch
›62Model
›60Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+20%LV vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 52.5Projection 60Ceiling 107
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 52.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Justin HerbertQB, LAC vs KCPassing yards: 215 proj, avg 206
58%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Pass attempts
›6.5Yards per attempt
›218Model
›215Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 154Avg line 205.5Projection 215Ceiling 275
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 205.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Davante AdamsWR, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 86 proj, avg 76
58%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›8.2Targets
›62%Catch rate
›5.1Receptions
›17.6Yards per catch
›89Model
›86Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 75.5Projection 86Ceiling 154
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 75.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Drake LondonWR, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 101 proj, avg 89
57%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›9.3Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.4Receptions
›16.5Yards per catch
›105Model
›101Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 89.5Projection 101Ceiling 181
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 89.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Tyler HigbeeTE, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 49 proj, avg 44
57%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.1Targets
›80%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›12.6Yards per catch
›51Model
›49Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+8%ARI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 43.5Projection 49Ceiling 88
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
16Kenyon SadiqTE, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 2.8
57%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.7Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 2.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4James CookRB, BUF vs LVRushing yards: 113 proj, avg 102
57%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›30.6Team carries
›66%Carry share
›20.2Carries
›5.7Yards per carry
›116Model
›113Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+3%Game script
+6%LV run D
−1%LV vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 41Avg line 102.5Projection 113Ceiling 185
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 102.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 2.9
57%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.5Targets
›85%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 2.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Gunnar HelmTE, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 16
57%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.2Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›8.2Yards per catch
›19Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
+8%IND vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 16.5Projection 19Ceiling 33
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 16.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA vs DENRushing yards: 55 proj, avg 50
57%
57.6Projected plays
›47%Run rate
›27.0Team carries
›57%Carry share
›15.4Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›57Model
›55Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
+6%DEN run D
+1%DEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 20Avg line 50.5Projection 55Ceiling 91
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Tyler HigbeeTE, LA vs ARIReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 3.9
57%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.1Targets
›80%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+8%ARI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 3.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
24Blake CorumRB, LA vs ARIRushing yards: 43 proj, avg 39
57%
69.4Projected plays
›39%Run rate
›27.3Team carries
›31%Carry share
›8.5Carries
›5.2Yards per carry
›44Model
›43Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+13%Game script
+3%ARI run D
−1%ARI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 39.5Projection 43Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 39.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
41Alvin KamaraRB, NO vs NYGRushing yards: 36 proj, avg 32
57%
66.5Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›43%Carry share
›10.1Carries
›3.6Yards per carry
›37Model
›36Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+1%Game script
+4%NYG run D
+1%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 32.5Projection 36Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 32.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Darnell MooneyWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 24 proj, avg 22
57%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›14.0Yards per catch
›25Model
›24Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 21.5Projection 24Ceiling 43
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Kendre MillerRB, NO vs NYGRushing yards: 27 proj, avg 24
57%
66.5Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›32%Carry share
›7.4Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›28Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+1%Game script
+4%NYG run D
+1%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 24.5Projection 27Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Patrick MahomesQB, KC vs LACRushing yards: 23 proj, avg 20
56%
61.2Projected plays
›49%Run rate
›29.9Team carries
›13%Carry share
›3.7Carries
›6.4Yards per carry
›24Model
›23Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+6%Game script
+2%LAC run D
+17%LAC vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 2Avg line 20.5Projection 23Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jakobi MeyersWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 50 proj, avg 45
56%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.2Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›13.1Yards per catch
›52Model
›50Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 45.5Projection 50Ceiling 90
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Michael WilsonWR, ARI vs LAReceiving yards: 65 proj, avg 58
56%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›10.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›6.2Receptions
›10.7Yards per catch
›67Model
›65Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 58.5Projection 65Ceiling 116
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Josh CameronWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 29
56%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Receptions
›15.6Yards per catch
›34Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 29.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Tyjae SpearsRB, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 18 proj, avg 16
56%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.6Targets
›91%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›5.8Yards per catch
›19Model
›18Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
+5%IND vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 16.5Projection 18Ceiling 33
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 16.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Brock PurdyQB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 24 proj, avg 22
56%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›18%Carry share
›5.2Carries
›4.7Yards per carry
›25Model
›24Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
+0%WAS vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 21.5Projection 24Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE vs BALPassing yards: 209 proj, avg 202
56%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Pass attempts
›6.1Yards per attempt
›212Model
›209Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
−0%BAL pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 150Avg line 202.5Projection 209Ceiling 268
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 202.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Malik NabersWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 73 proj, avg 67
56%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›5.8Receptions
›12.9Yards per catch
›75Model
›73Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 66.5Projection 73Ceiling 131
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Tre TuckerWR, LV vs BUFReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 3.6
56%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+13%BUF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 3.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Tony PollardRB, TEN vs INDRushing yards: 63 proj, avg 58
56%
57.5Projected plays
›37%Run rate
›21.0Team carries
›67%Carry share
›14.0Carries
›4.6Yards per carry
›65Model
›63Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−6%Game script
+5%IND run D
+2%IND vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 23Avg line 58.5Projection 63Ceiling 103
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
33Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL vs GBRushing yards: 68 proj, avg 63
56%
61.5Projected plays
›34%Run rate
›21.2Team carries
›71%Carry share
›15.1Carries
›4.6Yards per carry
›70Model
›68Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+5%GB run D
+7%GB vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 25Avg line 63.5Projection 68Ceiling 112
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 63.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Carnell TateWR, TEN vs INDReceptions: 5.0 proj, avg 4.6
56%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›23%Target share
›8.3Targets
›62%Catch rate
›5.1Model
›5.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.1Avg line 4.5Projection 5.0Ceiling 7.8
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Michael WilsonWR, ARI vs LAReceptions: 6.0 proj, avg 5.3
56%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›10.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›6.2Model
›6.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.9Avg line 5.5Projection 6.0Ceiling 9.1
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 74 proj, avg 68
56%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›28%Target share
›9.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Receptions
›11.5Yards per catch
›76Model
›74Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 67.5Projection 74Ceiling 133
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 67.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Jahan DotsonWR, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 32 proj, avg 30
55%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.7Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.7Receptions
›18.9Yards per catch
›33Model
›32Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 29.5Projection 32Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 25
55%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›3.9Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.3Receptions
›8.8Yards per catch
›29Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 25.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACRushing yards: 144 proj, avg 134
55%
61.2Projected plays
›49%Run rate
›29.9Team carries
›76%Carry share
›22.8Carries
›6.5Yards per carry
›147Model
›144Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+6%Game script
+2%LAC run D
+1%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 52Avg line 134.5Projection 144Ceiling 236
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 134.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
32TreVeyon HendersonRB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 51 proj, avg 47
55%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›36%Carry share
›10.7Carries
›4.9Yards per carry
›52Model
›51Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
+2%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 47.5Projection 51Ceiling 83
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 67 proj, avg 63
55%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›57%Carry share
›16.9Carries
›4.0Yards per carry
›68Model
›67Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
−4%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 24Avg line 62.5Projection 67Ceiling 110
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 62.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jakobi MeyersWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 3.7
55%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.2Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 3.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
26Ty JohnsonRB, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 26
55%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›2.7Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›28Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
−1%LV vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 25.5Projection 28Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Matthew StaffordQB, LA vs ARIPassing yards: 308 proj, avg 299
55%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Pass attempts
›7.4Yards per attempt
›311Model
›308Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+7%ARI pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 221Avg line 299.5Projection 308Ceiling 394
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 299.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Colston LovelandTE, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 31
55%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.1Receptions
›11.3Yards per catch
›35Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
+3%ATL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 31.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Geno SmithQB, NYJ vs NEPassing yards: 222 proj, avg 217
55%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Pass attempts
›6.4Yards per attempt
›224Model
›222Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 160Avg line 216.5Projection 222Ceiling 285
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 216.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Zay FlowersWR, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 6.0 proj, avg 5.8
55%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›27%Target share
›7.4Targets
›81%Catch rate
›6.0Model
›6.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.8Avg line 5.5Projection 6.0Ceiling 9.1
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
83Juwan JohnsonTE, NO vs NYGReceptions: 4.9 proj, avg 4.8
55%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.5Targets
›76%Catch rate
›5.0Model
›4.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
−2%NYG vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.1Avg line 4.5Projection 4.9Ceiling 7.8
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Brock BowersTE, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 81 proj, avg 76
55%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›9.7Targets
›69%Catch rate
›6.7Receptions
›12.4Yards per catch
›83Model
›81Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
−8%BUF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 75.5Projection 81Ceiling 146
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 75.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Tim PatrickWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 26
54%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›12.9Yards per catch
›29Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 28Ceiling 51
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
26Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI vs CARRushing yards: 62 proj, avg 58
54%
58.9Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›53%Carry share
›12.9Carries
›4.9Yards per carry
›63Model
›62Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−0%Game script
+7%CAR run D
+2%CAR vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 22Avg line 58.5Projection 62Ceiling 102
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 47 proj, avg 45
54%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›35%Carry share
›10.5Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›48Model
›47Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
+2%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 44.5Projection 47Ceiling 77
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 44.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Elic AyomanorWR, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 30 proj, avg 29
54%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.8Targets
›46%Catch rate
›1.7Receptions
›18.0Yards per catch
›31Model
›30Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 28.5Projection 30Ceiling 54
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Rome OdunzeWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 58 proj, avg 55
54%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›53%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›16.7Yards per catch
›59Model
›58Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 54.5Projection 58Ceiling 104
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 54.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 38
54%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.9Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.3Receptions
›9.4Yards per catch
›41Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 40Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Wan'Dale RobinsonWR, TEN vs INDReceptions: 4.9 proj, avg 4.4
54%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.9Targets
›73%Catch rate
›5.0Model
›4.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.0Avg line 4.5Projection 4.9Ceiling 7.7
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 37
54%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›4.2Receptions
›9.6Yards per catch
›41Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
+3%BAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 40Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Matthew GoldenWR, GB vs DALReceiving yards: 62 proj, avg 58
53%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.9Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›16.4Yards per catch
›63Model
›62Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 58.5Projection 62Ceiling 111
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13John Metchie IIIWR, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 30 proj, avg 28
53%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.0Targets
›51%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›31Model
›30Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 28.5Projection 30Ceiling 54
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2DJ MooreWR, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 62 proj, avg 59
53%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.8Targets
›60%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›15.5Yards per catch
›63Model
›62Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 59.5Projection 62Ceiling 112
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 59.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Matthew GoldenWR, GB vs DALReceptions: 3.8 proj, avg 3.7
53%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.9Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.3Avg line 3.5Projection 3.8Ceiling 6.3
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Keon ColemanWR, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 42 proj, avg 40
53%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›13.6Yards per catch
›43Model
›42Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 40.5Projection 42Ceiling 76
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 40.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Makai LemonWR, PHI vs CARReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 22
53%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›65%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›7.2Yards per catch
›23Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 21.5Projection 22Ceiling 40
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Jameis WinstonQB, NYG vs NOPassing yards: 204 proj, avg 201
53%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Pass attempts
›5.6Yards per attempt
›205Model
›204Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−1%NO pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 147Avg line 201.5Projection 204Ceiling 262
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 201.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Jake FergusonTE, DAL vs GBReceptions: 3.8 proj, avg 3.7
53%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.1Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−2%GB vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.3Avg line 3.5Projection 3.8Ceiling 6.3
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIRushing yards: 108 proj, avg 104
53%
65.5Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›33.7Team carries
›60%Carry share
›20.2Carries
›5.4Yards per carry
›109Model
›108Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%CHI run D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 39Avg line 104.5Projection 108Ceiling 177
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 104.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 39 proj, avg 38
52%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.3Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.7Receptions
›8.3Yards per catch
›39Model
›39Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
−7%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 39Ceiling 70
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Kendrick BourneWR, ARI vs LAReceiving yards: 46 proj, avg 45
52%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.7Targets
›79%Catch rate
›4.5Receptions
›10.4Yards per catch
›47Model
›46Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 44.5Projection 46Ceiling 83
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 44.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88AJ BarnerTE, SEA vs DENReceptions: 2.8 proj, avg 2.7
52%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
+3%DEN vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.8Ceiling 4.9
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Christian WatsonWR, GB vs DALReceiving yards: 84 proj, avg 81
52%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›7.0Targets
›65%Catch rate
›4.5Receptions
›18.9Yards per catch
›86Model
›84Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 81.5Projection 84Ceiling 152
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 81.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Zay FlowersWR, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 90 proj, avg 86
52%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›27%Target share
›7.4Targets
›81%Catch rate
›6.0Receptions
›15.1Yards per catch
›91Model
›90Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 86.5Projection 90Ceiling 161
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 86.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12RJ HarveyRB, DEN vs SEARushing yards: 23 proj, avg 23
52%
56.8Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›22.8Team carries
›28%Carry share
›6.4Carries
›3.6Yards per carry
›23Model
›23Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−2%Game script
−3%SEA run D
−1%SEA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 22.5Projection 23Ceiling 38
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
80Darius CooperWR, PHI vs CARReceiving yards: 29 proj, avg 28
52%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›64%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›14.2Yards per catch
›30Model
›29Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 28.5Projection 29Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 49
52%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.9Receptions
›13.1Yards per catch
›52Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 11Avg line 49.5Projection 51Ceiling 92
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Isaiah WilliamsWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 27
52%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›10.6Yards per catch
›28Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 80 proj, avg 78
52%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›20%Target share
›8.0Targets
›64%Catch rate
›5.1Receptions
›15.8Yards per catch
›81Model
›80Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 77.5Projection 80Ceiling 143
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 77.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Khalil ShakirWR, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 48 proj, avg 47
52%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›12.2Yards per catch
›48Model
›48Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 46.5Projection 48Ceiling 86
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 46.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Quentin JohnstonWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.9
52%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.5Targets
›49%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.9
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Jaylin NoelWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 37 proj, avg 36
52%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›15.9Yards per catch
›37Model
›37Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 35.5Projection 37Ceiling 66
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Kyren WilliamsRB, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 31 proj, avg 31
52%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›3.9Receptions
›8.0Yards per catch
›32Model
›31Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
−1%ARI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 30.5Projection 31Ceiling 56
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 30.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Brian RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIRushing yards: 43 proj, avg 42
52%
65.5Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›33.7Team carries
›32%Carry share
›10.8Carries
›4.1Yards per carry
›44Model
›43Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%CHI run D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 42.5Projection 43Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 42.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Parker WashingtonWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 66 proj, avg 65
52%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.4Targets
›63%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›16.5Yards per catch
›66Model
›66Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 14Avg line 64.5Projection 66Ceiling 118
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 64.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88AJ BarnerTE, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 27
51%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›9.7Yards per catch
›27Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
+3%DEN vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Darnell MooneyWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.6
51%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Kyle PittsTE, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 35 proj, avg 35
51%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.3Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›35Model
›35Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−13%CHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 34.5Projection 35Ceiling 63
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 34.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Oronde Gadsden IITE, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.4
51%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.2Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
+12%KC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
16Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX vs HOUPassing yards: 237 proj, avg 235
51%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Pass attempts
›7.8Yards per attempt
›238Model
›237Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
−0%HOU pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 170Avg line 235.5Projection 237Ceiling 304
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 235.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Elic AyomanorWR, TEN vs INDReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.7
51%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.8Targets
›46%Catch rate
›1.7Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Chig OkonkwoTE, WAS vs SFReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.7
51%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.6Targets
›59%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−13%SF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Jahan DotsonWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.6
51%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.7Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.7Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASReceptions: 4.7 proj, avg 4.7
51%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.3Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.7Model
›4.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
−7%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.9Avg line 4.5Projection 4.7Ceiling 7.5
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outReceiving yards: 16 proj, avg 16
51%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›6.4Yards per catch
›16Model
›16Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−7%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 15.5Projection 16Ceiling 28
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 15.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 18 proj, avg 17
51%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.5Targets
›85%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›6.0Yards per catch
›18Model
›18Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 18Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 21 proj, avg 21
51%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›21Model
›21Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 20.5Projection 21Ceiling 37
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4DK MetcalfWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.7 proj, avg 3.9
51%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.7Targets
›54%Catch rate
›3.6Model
›3.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.7Ceiling 6.2
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
27J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN vs SEARushing yards: 59 proj, avg 58
51%
56.8Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›22.8Team carries
›63%Carry share
›14.3Carries
›4.1Yards per carry
›59Model
›59Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−2%Game script
−3%SEA run D
−1%SEA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 58.5Projection 59Ceiling 97
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Nico CollinsWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 78 proj, avg 78
51%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›8.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›5.3Receptions
›14.8Yards per catch
›78Model
›78Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 77.5Projection 78Ceiling 140
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 77.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Malik NabersWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 5.7 proj, avg 5.3
51%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›5.8Model
›5.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.6Avg line 5.5Projection 5.7Ceiling 8.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
16Kenyon SadiqTE, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 30 proj, avg 29
51%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.7Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›9.9Yards per catch
›30Model
›30Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 30Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.8
50%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›53%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Dontayvion WicksWR, PHI vs CARReceiving yards: 53 proj, avg 52
50%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.0Targets
›58%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›15.3Yards per catch
›53Model
›53Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 11Avg line 52.5Projection 53Ceiling 95
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 52.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Rashee RiceWR, KC vs LACReceptions: 5.7 proj, avg 5.7
50%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›8.1Targets
›70%Catch rate
›5.7Model
›5.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.6Avg line 5.5Projection 5.7Ceiling 8.7
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.7
50%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 57 proj, avg 57
50%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Receptions
›8.6Yards per catch
›57Model
›57Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
−2%NO vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 56.5Projection 57Ceiling 102
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 56.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Ashton JeantyRB, LV vs BUFRushing yards: 58 proj, avg 58
50%
63.4Projected plays
›39%Run rate
›25.0Team carries
›63%Carry share
›15.8Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›58Model
›58Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%BUF run D
+5%BUF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 57.5Projection 58Ceiling 95
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 57.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Chuba HubbardRB, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 18 proj, avg 18
50%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.6Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›8.3Yards per catch
›17Model
›18Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−4%PHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 18Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
83Juwan JohnsonTE, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 51
50%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.5Targets
›76%Catch rate
›5.0Receptions
›10.2Yards per catch
›51Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
−2%NYG vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 50.5Projection 51Ceiling 91
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Rashid ShaheedWR, SEA vs DENReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.8
50%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.5Targets
›46%Catch rate
›1.6Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.3
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Mike Washington Jr.RB, LV vs BUFRushing yards: 25 proj, avg 25
50%
63.4Projected plays
›39%Run rate
›25.0Team carries
›19%Carry share
›4.8Carries
›5.3Yards per carry
›26Model
›25Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%BUF run D
+5%BUF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 25.5Projection 25Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7C.J. StroudQB, HOU vs JAXPassing yards: 255 proj, avg 255
50%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Pass attempts
›6.6Yards per attempt
›255Model
›255Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+1%JAX pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 183Avg line 255.5Projection 255Ceiling 327
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 255.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jerry JeudyWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 28
50%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.2Targets
›48%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›10.9Yards per catch
›27Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 27.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
81Devontez WalkerWR, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 23
50%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›1.6Targets
›67%Catch rate
›1.1Receptions
›21.3Yards per catch
›24Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 23.5Projection 23Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Braelon AllenRB, NYJ vs NERushing yards: 35 proj, avg 36
50%
59.2Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›37%Carry share
›8.9Carries
›4.0Yards per carry
›35Model
›35Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%NE run D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 35.5Projection 35Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Brock BowersTE, LV vs BUFReceptions: 6.6 proj, avg 6.4
50%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›9.7Targets
›69%Catch rate
›6.7Model
›6.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
−8%BUF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3.3Avg line 6.5Projection 6.6Ceiling 9.9
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 6.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Malachi FieldsWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 29 proj, avg 29
50%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.0Receptions
›15.0Yards per catch
›29Model
›29Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 29Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Antonio WilliamsWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 31 proj, avg 31
50%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›9.7Yards per catch
›31Model
›31Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 31.5Projection 31Ceiling 56
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
28Jonathan TaylorRB, IND vs TENRushing yards: 85 proj, avg 85
49%
61.1Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›27.2Team carries
›71%Carry share
›19.3Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›85Model
›85Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
+6%Game script
+0%TEN run D
−2%TEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 31Avg line 85.5Projection 85Ceiling 139
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 85.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG vs NOReceptions: 6.6 proj, avg 6.6
49%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Model
›6.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
−2%NO vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3.3Avg line 6.5Projection 6.6Ceiling 9.9
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 6.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 26 proj, avg 27
49%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›9.7Yards per catch
›26Model
›26Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 26.5Projection 26Ceiling 47
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Josh DownsWR, IND vs TENReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.9
49%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.8Targets
›61%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.1
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Marvin Mims Jr.WR, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 17 proj, avg 17
49%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›7.3Yards per catch
›17Model
›17Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 17Ceiling 31
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
26Kaelon BlackRB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 27 proj, avg 27
49%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›26%Carry share
›7.8Carries
›3.5Yards per carry
›27Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
−4%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 27.5Projection 27Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Chris OlaveWR, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 92 proj, avg 94
49%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›24%Target share
›10.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.2Receptions
›12.7Yards per catch
›91Model
›92Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 19Avg line 93.5Projection 92Ceiling 164
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 93.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.6
49%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.5Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.6Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 38 proj, avg 38
49%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›53%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›14.1Yards per catch
›37Model
›38Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 38.5Projection 38Ceiling 68
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 38.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Denzel BostonWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 65 proj, avg 66
49%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.2Targets
›51%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›20.3Yards per catch
›65Model
›65Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 66.5Projection 65Ceiling 117
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Dalton SchultzTE, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 46 proj, avg 48
49%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.8Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.4Receptions
›10.5Yards per catch
›46Model
›46Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−2%JAX vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 47.5Projection 46Ceiling 83
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Laquon TreadwellWR, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 31 proj, avg 31
49%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›14.5Yards per catch
›31Model
›31Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 31.5Projection 31Ceiling 55
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Devaughn VeleWR, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 42 proj, avg 43
48%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›6.1Targets
›67%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›10.4Yards per catch
›42Model
›42Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 43.5Projection 42Ceiling 76
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Mark AndrewsTE, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.8
48%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›4.9Targets
›71%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Chris Godwin Jr.WR, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.7
48%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›74%Catch rate
›3.6Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12RJ HarveyRB, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 27
48%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›86%Catch rate
›4.2Receptions
›6.4Yards per catch
›27Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−1%SEA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 27.5Projection 27Ceiling 48
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 33
48%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.6Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›9.4Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
+3%TB vs TEs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 33.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 33.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
33Bhayshul TutenRB, JAX vs HOURushing yards: 49 proj, avg 50
48%
58.8Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›28.1Team carries
›46%Carry share
›12.9Carries
›3.8Yards per carry
›49Model
›49Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+2%Game script
−7%HOU run D
−2%HOU vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 50.5Projection 49Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Derrick HenryRB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 92 proj, avg 95
48%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›66%Carry share
›21.1Carries
›4.3Yards per carry
›92Model
›92Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−5%CLE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 33Avg line 94.5Projection 92Ceiling 152
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 94.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Jalen CokerWR, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 50 proj, avg 51
48%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.8Targets
›79%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›13.0Yards per catch
›50Model
›50Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 51.5Projection 50Ceiling 90
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 51.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Cade OttonTE, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.7
48%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−2%PIT vs TEs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITRushing yards: 71 proj, avg 72
48%
59.0Projected plays
›43%Run rate
›25.4Team carries
›61%Carry share
›15.6Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›70Model
›71Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%PIT run D
−1%PIT vs RBs
+2%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 25Avg line 72.5Projection 71Ceiling 116
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 72.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBRushing yards: 72 proj, avg 73
48%
59.0Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›20.6Team carries
›71%Carry share
›14.6Carries
›4.9Yards per carry
›71Model
›72Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
−7%TB run D
−4%TB vs RBs
+2%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 26Avg line 73.5Projection 72Ceiling 118
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 73.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE vs BALRushing yards: 32 proj, avg 33
48%
58.5Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›30%Carry share
›7.1Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›32Model
›32Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%BAL run D
+0%BAL vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 33.5Projection 32Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 33.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
34Keaton MitchellRB, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.4
48%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›85%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−2%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Jake FergusonTE, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 26 proj, avg 26
48%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.1Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›6.6Yards per catch
›25Model
›26Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−2%GB vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 26.5Projection 26Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Rashee RiceWR, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 66 proj, avg 68
48%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›8.1Targets
›70%Catch rate
›5.7Receptions
›11.5Yards per catch
›66Model
›66Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 14Avg line 68.5Projection 66Ceiling 119
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 68.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Puka NacuaWR, LA vs ARIReceptions: 9.5 proj, avg 9.0
48%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›12.1Targets
›80%Catch rate
›9.7Model
›9.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5.6Avg line 9.5Projection 9.5Ceiling 13.4
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 9.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Brenton StrangeTE, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 45 proj, avg 46
48%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.4Targets
›75%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›11.0Yards per catch
›45Model
›45Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
−13%HOU vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 46.5Projection 45Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 46.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NOReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.4
48%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+17%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Chuba HubbardRB, CAR vs PHIRushing yards: 54 proj, avg 55
48%
62.4Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›22.0Team carries
›54%Carry share
›11.9Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›53Model
›54Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
+1%Game script
+1%PHI run D
−2%PHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 19Avg line 55.5Projection 54Ceiling 88
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Isaiah WilliamsWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.5
47%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Terry McLaurinWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.6
47%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.3Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Kalif RaymondWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 44 proj, avg 45
47%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›88%Catch rate
›4.3Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›43Model
›44Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 45.5Projection 44Ceiling 78
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Rashod BatemanWR, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 35
47%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›14.2Yards per catch
›33Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 34.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 34.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Christian WatsonWR, GB vs DALReceptions: 4.5 proj, avg 4.5
47%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›7.0Targets
›65%Catch rate
›4.5Model
›4.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.8Avg line 4.5Projection 4.5Ceiling 7.2
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Rome OdunzeWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.5 proj, avg 3.5
47%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›53%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.5Ceiling 5.9
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 39 proj, avg 41
47%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.5Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.6Receptions
›10.5Yards per catch
›38Model
›39Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 40.5Projection 39Ceiling 69
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 40.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Bo NixQB, DEN vs SEAPassing yards: 202 proj, avg 206
47%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Pass attempts
›5.9Yards per attempt
›201Model
›202Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−5%SEA pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 145Avg line 205.5Projection 202Ceiling 259
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 205.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Efton Chism IIIWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 25
47%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›10.7Yards per catch
›23Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 24.5Projection 23Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Dalton SchultzTE, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 4.5 proj, avg 4.8
47%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.8Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.4Model
›4.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−2%JAX vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.8Avg line 4.5Projection 4.5Ceiling 7.2
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1KC ConcepcionWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 30
47%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.4Receptions
›8.1Yards per catch
›28Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 20
47%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.6Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›6.1Yards per catch
›18Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 19.5Projection 19Ceiling 33
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13John Metchie IIIWR, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
47%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.0Targets
›51%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.7
47%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›79%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
+5%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Dak PrescottQB, DAL vs GBPassing yards: 267 proj, avg 273
47%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Pass attempts
›6.6Yards per attempt
›266Model
›267Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−4%GB pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 192Avg line 272.5Projection 267Ceiling 343
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 272.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Josh DownsWR, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 44
47%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.8Targets
›61%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›11.4Yards per catch
›40Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 43.5Projection 41Ceiling 74
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
43Justice HillRB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 20 proj, avg 20
46%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›9%Carry share
›3.0Carries
›6.4Yards per carry
›19Model
›20Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−5%CLE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 20.5Projection 20Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Tre HarrisWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 35
46%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.3Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›13.4Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 34Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALRushing yards: 48 proj, avg 50
46%
58.5Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›63%Carry share
›14.9Carries
›3.2Yards per carry
›48Model
›48Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%BAL run D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 50.5Projection 48Ceiling 79
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Ryan FlournoyWR, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 35 proj, avg 38
46%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.2Targets
›61%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›10.9Yards per catch
›35Model
›35Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 35Ceiling 64
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Drake MayeQB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 28 proj, avg 30
46%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›21%Carry share
›6.1Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›27Model
›28Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
−17%NYJ vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 29.5Projection 28Ceiling 52
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Courtland SuttonWR, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 36
46%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.0Targets
›52%Catch rate
›3.1Receptions
›10.9Yards per catch
›34Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 36.5Projection 34Ceiling 62
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 36.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Stefon DiggsWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 43
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›4.4Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›39Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 42.5Projection 40Ceiling 72
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 42.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Terry McLaurinWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 55
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.3Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›14.3Yards per catch
›50Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 11Avg line 54.5Projection 51Ceiling 92
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 54.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Trey McBrideTE, ARI vs LAReceiving yards: 63 proj, avg 66
46%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›11.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›8.2Receptions
›7.5Yards per catch
›62Model
›63Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−8%LA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 66.5Projection 63Ceiling 112
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Kyle PittsTE, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 3.5 proj, avg 3.3
46%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.3Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−13%CHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.5Ceiling 5.9
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Romeo DoubsWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 44
46%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›16.2Yards per catch
›40Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 43.5Projection 41Ceiling 73
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 36
46%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›3.3Receptions
›9.9Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−7%TB vs RBs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
25Kyle MonangaiRB, CHI vs ATLRushing yards: 60 proj, avg 64
46%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›34.6Team carries
›35%Carry share
›12.3Carries
›4.8Yards per carry
›59Model
›60Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%ATL run D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 22Avg line 63.5Projection 60Ceiling 99
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 63.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Stefon DiggsWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 4.4 proj, avg 4.5
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›4.4Model
›4.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.4Ceiling 7.1
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Evan EngramTE, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
46%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.0Targets
›62%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Mark AndrewsTE, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 29 proj, avg 31
46%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›4.9Targets
›71%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›8.2Yards per catch
›29Model
›29Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 31.5Projection 29Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Kendrick BourneWR, ARI vs LAReceptions: 4.4 proj, avg 4.2
46%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.7Targets
›79%Catch rate
›4.5Model
›4.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.4Ceiling 7.1
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Romeo DoubsWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.6
46%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
24Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX vs HOURushing yards: 21 proj, avg 23
46%
58.8Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›28.1Team carries
›20%Carry share
›5.6Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›21Model
›21Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+2%Game script
−7%HOU run D
−2%HOU vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 22.5Projection 21Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jerry JeudyWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
46%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.2Targets
›48%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Germie BernardWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 35
46%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›10.3Yards per catch
›33Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Xavier WorthyWR, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 36
46%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.1Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›10.7Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Dontayvion WicksWR, PHI vs CARReceptions: 3.5 proj, avg 3.4
45%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.0Targets
›58%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.5Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Kalif RaymondWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 4.4 proj, avg 4.8
45%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›88%Catch rate
›4.3Model
›4.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.4Ceiling 7.1
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3George PickensWR, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 71 proj, avg 76
45%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›8.3Targets
›64%Catch rate
›5.4Receptions
›13.0Yards per catch
›70Model
›71Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 76.5Projection 71Ceiling 128
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 76.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Keenan AllenWR, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 36
45%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›62%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›8.2Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 36.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 36.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Jayden DanielsQB, WAS vs SFPassing yards: 165 proj, avg 169
45%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Pass attempts
›4.6Yards per attempt
›164Model
›165Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 119Avg line 169.5Projection 165Ceiling 212
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 169.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88CeeDee LambWR, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 88 proj, avg 94
45%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›10.0Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.0Receptions
›12.4Yards per catch
›86Model
›88Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 94.5Projection 88Ceiling 158
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 94.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Tre HarrisWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
45%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.3Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.4
45%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.6Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
+3%TB vs TEs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3George PickensWR, DAL vs GBReceptions: 5.4 proj, avg 5.4
45%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›8.3Targets
›64%Catch rate
›5.4Model
›5.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 2.4Avg line 5.5Projection 5.4Ceiling 8.3
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6Tyler ShoughQB, NO vs NYGPassing yards: 236 proj, avg 243
45%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Pass attempts
›5.4Yards per attempt
›234Model
›236Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−2%NYG pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 169Avg line 242.5Projection 236Ceiling 302
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 242.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1KC ConcepcionWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.6
45%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Cooper KuppWR, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 30
45%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.6Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›11.4Yards per catch
›28Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 30.5Projection 28Ceiling 51
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 30.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Evan EngramTE, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 24 proj, avg 26
45%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.0Targets
›62%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›9.6Yards per catch
›24Model
›24Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 26.5Projection 24Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 23
45%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›79%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›8.5Yards per catch
›21Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
+5%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 23.5Projection 22Ceiling 39
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
34Keaton MitchellRB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 26 proj, avg 27
45%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›24%Carry share
›6.6Carries
›3.9Yards per carry
›25Model
›26Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−1%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 27.5Projection 26Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
45%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−7%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Darren WallerTE, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 35 proj, avg 37
45%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.8Targets
›62%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›11.3Yards per catch
›34Model
›35Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−13%PHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 35Ceiling 62
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Quentin JohnstonWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 38 proj, avg 42
45%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.5Targets
›49%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›13.7Yards per catch
›37Model
›38Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 41.5Projection 38Ceiling 69
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 41.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Jeremiyah LoveRB, ARI vs LARushing yards: 46 proj, avg 49
45%
68.2Projected plays
›32%Run rate
›21.6Team carries
›56%Carry share
›12.2Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›45Model
›46Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−12%Game script
+4%LA run D
−4%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 49.5Projection 46Ceiling 76
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Tyler WarrenTE, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 45
44%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.9Receptions
›8.1Yards per catch
›40Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−8%TEN vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 44.5Projection 41Ceiling 74
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 44.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.6
44%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Roman WilsonWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 30
44%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›12.8Yards per catch
›26Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 44 proj, avg 48
44%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.4Receptions
›12.6Yards per catch
›42Model
›44Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 47.5Projection 44Ceiling 78
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 20 proj, avg 21
44%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›4.7Targets
›61%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›6.8Yards per catch
›19Model
›20Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+2%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 21.5Projection 20Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Cooper KuppWR, SEA vs DENReceptions: 2.4 proj, avg 2.5
44%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.6Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.4Ceiling 4.4
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLRushing yards: 65 proj, avg 70
44%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›34.6Team carries
›41%Carry share
›14.2Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›63Model
›65Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%ATL run D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 23Avg line 69.5Projection 65Ceiling 106
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 69.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Nico CollinsWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 5.3 proj, avg 5.4
44%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›8.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›5.3Model
›5.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.4Avg line 5.5Projection 5.3Ceiling 8.3
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4DK MetcalfWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 45 proj, avg 50
44%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.7Targets
›54%Catch rate
›3.6Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›44Model
›45Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 49.5Projection 45Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Tucker KraftTE, GB vs DALReceptions: 4.3 proj, avg 4.0
44%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.2Targets
›71%Catch rate
›4.4Model
›4.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+3%DAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.3Ceiling 7.0
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Lamar JacksonQB, BAL vs CLEPassing yards: 211 proj, avg 219
44%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Pass attempts
›7.6Yards per attempt
›208Model
›211Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
+1%CLE pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 152Avg line 218.5Projection 211Ceiling 270
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 218.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Cade OttonTE, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 37
44%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›9.3Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−2%PIT vs TEs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
28Jonathan TaylorRB, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 22
43%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.2Targets
›71%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›8.3Yards per catch
›19Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−4%TEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 21.5Projection 19Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Chig OkonkwoTE, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 25 proj, avg 27
43%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.6Targets
›59%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›24Model
›25Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−13%SF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 27.5Projection 25Ceiling 45
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Bryce YoungQB, CAR vs PHIPassing yards: 243 proj, avg 253
43%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Pass attempts
›5.9Yards per attempt
›240Model
›243Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+1%PHI pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 175Avg line 252.5Projection 243Ceiling 312
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 252.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Trey McBrideTE, ARI vs LAReceptions: 8.2 proj, avg 8.0
43%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›11.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›8.2Model
›8.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−8%LA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4.5Avg line 8.5Projection 8.2Ceiling 11.8
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 8.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3DeMario DouglasWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 26 proj, avg 29
43%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.4Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›25Model
›26Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 28.5Projection 26Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Chris Godwin Jr.WR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 38
43%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›74%Catch rate
›3.6Receptions
›9.2Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI vs LARushing yards: 21 proj, avg 24
43%
68.2Projected plays
›32%Run rate
›21.6Team carries
›28%Carry share
›6.0Carries
›3.5Yards per carry
›21Model
›21Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−12%Game script
+4%LA run D
−4%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 23.5Projection 21Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Chris OlaveWR, NO vs NYGReceptions: 7.2 proj, avg 7.2
43%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›24%Target share
›10.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.2Model
›7.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3.7Avg line 7.5Projection 7.2Ceiling 10.6
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 7.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Emeka EgbukaWR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 45
42%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.0Targets
›55%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›10.2Yards per catch
›39Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 45.5Projection 41Ceiling 73
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Travis KelceTE, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 50 proj, avg 56
42%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.8Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.9Receptions
›12.2Yards per catch
›48Model
›50Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
−8%LAC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 55.5Projection 50Ceiling 89
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Jayden DanielsQB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 45 proj, avg 51
42%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›26%Carry share
›6.8Carries
›6.2Yards per carry
›42Model
›45Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
+0%SF vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 50.5Projection 45Ceiling 84
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Dalton KincaidTE, BUF vs LVReceptions: 3.3 proj, avg 3.2
42%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.1Targets
›82%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+20%LV vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.3Ceiling 5.6
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 2.4 proj, avg 2.5
42%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.4Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 100 proj, avg 112
42%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›30%Target share
›9.1Targets
›72%Catch rate
›6.6Receptions
›14.6Yards per catch
›96Model
›100Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 112.5Projection 100Ceiling 179
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 112.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 4.0
42%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.9Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.3Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 4.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.9
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Rashod BatemanWR, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.5
42%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NERushing yards: 56 proj, avg 62
42%
59.2Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›60%Carry share
›14.4Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›54Model
›56Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%NE run D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 20Avg line 61.5Projection 56Ceiling 91
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 61.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.3 proj, avg 3.3
42%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−7%TB vs RBs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.3Ceiling 5.6
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
28Jonathan TaylorRB, IND vs TENReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.6
42%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.2Targets
›71%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−4%TEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Sam DarnoldQB, SEA vs DENPassing yards: 204 proj, avg 214
41%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Pass attempts
›6.6Yards per attempt
›201Model
›204Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%DEN pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 146Avg line 213.5Projection 204Ceiling 261
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 213.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 43 proj, avg 48
41%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›42%Carry share
›11.2Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›41Model
›43Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
−2%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 47.5Projection 43Ceiling 70
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Rashid ShaheedWR, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 17 proj, avg 19
41%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.5Targets
›46%Catch rate
›1.6Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›16Model
›17Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 19.5Projection 17Ceiling 31
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 5.2 proj, avg 5.3
41%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›20%Target share
›8.0Targets
›64%Catch rate
›5.1Model
›5.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 2.3Avg line 5.5Projection 5.2Ceiling 8.1
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outRushing yards: 52 proj, avg 57
41%
60.3Projected plays
›36%Run rate
›21.8Team carries
›73%Carry share
›16.0Carries
›3.1Yards per carry
›50Model
›52Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−2%Game script
−8%JAX run D
−4%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 19Avg line 57.5Projection 52Ceiling 85
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 57.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI vs LAReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.4
41%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›5%Target share
›2.5Targets
›92%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−7%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
26Ty JohnsonRB, BUF vs LVReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.2
41%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›2.7Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
−1%LV vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Keenan AllenWR, IND vs TENReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 4.5
41%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›62%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 4.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.8
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF vs WASReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
41%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›3.9Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Jaylin NoelWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.3
41%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Gunnar HelmTE, TEN vs INDReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.2
41%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.2Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
+8%IND vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Jeremiyah LoveRB, ARI vs LAReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.2
41%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›3.1Targets
›76%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−7%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.2
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Marvin Mims Jr.WR, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.2
41%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.2
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
41Alvin KamaraRB, NO vs NYGReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.1
40%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›4.0Targets
›82%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+2%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE vs BALReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 4.0
40%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›4.2Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
+3%BAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 4.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.8
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Lamar JacksonQB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 27 proj, avg 31
40%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›15%Carry share
›4.8Carries
›5.3Yards per carry
›25Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−17%CLE vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 31.5Projection 27Ceiling 51
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Tyjae SpearsRB, TEN vs INDReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.1
40%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.6Targets
›91%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
+5%IND vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Rachaad WhiteRB, WAS vs SFReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.5
40%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.4Targets
›92%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−4%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.2
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88CeeDee LambWR, DAL vs GBReceptions: 7.0 proj, avg 7.0
40%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›10.0Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.0Model
›7.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3.6Avg line 7.5Projection 7.0Ceiling 10.4
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 7.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Denzel BostonWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
40%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.2Targets
›51%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Daniel JonesQB, IND vs TENPassing yards: 205 proj, avg 218
39%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Pass attempts
›5.9Yards per attempt
›201Model
›205Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%TEN pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 148Avg line 217.5Projection 205Ceiling 263
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 217.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Ryan FlournoyWR, DAL vs GBReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
39%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.2Targets
›61%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Germie BernardWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
39%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Davante AdamsWR, LA vs ARIReceptions: 5.1 proj, avg 5.0
39%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›8.2Targets
›62%Catch rate
›5.1Model
›5.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 2.2Avg line 5.5Projection 5.1Ceiling 7.9
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Justin HerbertQB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 25 proj, avg 30
39%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›18%Carry share
›4.8Carries
›4.8Yards per carry
›23Model
›25Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−15%KC vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 29.5Projection 25Ceiling 47
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Omarion HamptonRB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 50 proj, avg 57
39%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›46%Carry share
›12.6Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›47Model
›50Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−1%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 56.5Projection 50Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 56.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6Baker MayfieldQB, TB vs PITPassing yards: 200 proj, avg 212
39%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Pass attempts
›5.8Yards per attempt
›196Model
›200Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−2%PIT pass defense
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 144Avg line 212.5Projection 200Ceiling 257
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 212.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Antonio WilliamsWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.0
39%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 32
39%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.8Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›14.5Yards per catch
›26Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 32.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 32.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Devaughn VeleWR, NO vs NYGReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.1
39%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›6.1Targets
›67%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.7
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Tyler WarrenTE, IND vs TENReceptions: 5.0 proj, avg 5.4
39%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.9Model
›5.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−8%TEN vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.1Avg line 5.5Projection 5.0Ceiling 7.9
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Keon ColemanWR, BUF vs LVReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.1
39%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Parker WashingtonWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.2
38%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.4Targets
›63%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2DJ MooreWR, BUF vs LVReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.0
38%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.8Targets
›60%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Brenton StrangeTE, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.1
38%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.4Targets
›75%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
−13%HOU vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Makai LemonWR, PHI vs CARReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.0
38%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›65%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Tim PatrickWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.0
38%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Courtland SuttonWR, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.1
38%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.0Targets
›52%Catch rate
›3.1Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Patrick MahomesQB, KC vs LACPassing yards: 241 proj, avg 258
38%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Pass attempts
›7.5Yards per attempt
›235Model
›241Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−4%LAC pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 173Avg line 257.5Projection 241Ceiling 309
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 257.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Kenny GainwellRB, TB vs PITReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.2
37%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
39Dameon PierceRB, PHI vs CARReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.0
37%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.5Targets
›41%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
+5%CAR vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6Baker MayfieldQB, TB vs PITRushing yards: 18 proj, avg 22
37%
59.0Projected plays
›43%Run rate
›25.4Team carries
›12%Carry share
›3.1Carries
›5.5Yards per carry
›17Model
›18Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%PIT run D
−17%PIT vs QBs
+2%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 2Avg line 22.5Projection 18Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Rachaad WhiteRB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 25 proj, avg 30
37%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›24%Carry share
›6.2Carries
›3.9Yards per carry
›24Model
›25Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
−2%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 29.5Projection 25Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Aaron RodgersQB, PIT vs TBPassing yards: 216 proj, avg 231
37%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Pass attempts
›5.5Yards per attempt
›211Model
›216Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+1%TB pass defense
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 155Avg line 231.5Projection 216Ceiling 277
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 231.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Colston LovelandTE, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.0
37%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.1Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
+3%ATL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Kyren WilliamsRB, LA vs ARIReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 4.1
37%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›3.9Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
−1%ARI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Xavier WorthyWR, KC vs LACReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.2
37%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.1Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Efton Chism IIIWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.2
37%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Khalil ShakirWR, BUF vs LVReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 4.0
37%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Travis KelceTE, KC vs LACReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 4.2
36%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.8Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.9Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
−8%LAC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Darren WallerTE, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 3.2
36%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.8Targets
›62%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−13%PHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 4.0
36%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.9Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Laquon TreadwellWR, IND vs TENReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.2
36%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA vs DENReceptions: 6.7 proj, avg 7.2
36%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›30%Target share
›9.1Targets
›72%Catch rate
›6.6Model
›6.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 3.4Avg line 7.5Projection 6.7Ceiling 10.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 7.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Hunter HenryTE, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 32 proj, avg 39
36%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›11.1Yards per catch
›30Model
›32Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−13%NYJ vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 39.5Projection 32Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 39.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Josh CameronWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.0
36%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Chuba HubbardRB, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.2
36%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.6Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−4%PHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3DeMario DouglasWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.3
35%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.4Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
32MarShawn LloydRB, GB vs DALReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.0
35%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.7Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+8%DAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Jalen CokerWR, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 4.2
35%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.8Targets
›79%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.4
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 3.0
35%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.6Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Emeka EgbukaWR, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 4.0
35%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.0Targets
›55%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.4
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Roman WilsonWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.2
35%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 3.9
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
80Darius CooperWR, PHI vs CARReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.0
34%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›64%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 3.9
The ring shows a
34% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Drake MayeQB, NE vs NYJPassing yards: 229 proj, avg 251
34%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Pass attempts
›7.0Yards per attempt
›222Model
›229Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 165Avg line 250.5Projection 229Ceiling 294
The ring shows a
34% chance he goes over 250.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACReceptions: 2.9 proj, avg 3.0
33%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›4.7Targets
›61%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+2%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.7Avg line 3.5Projection 2.9Ceiling 5.0
The ring shows a
33% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Omarion HamptonRB, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 2.0
32%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.3Targets
›86%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−2%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
32% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Malachi FieldsWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 2.0
31%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
31% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Hunter HenryTE, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.8 proj, avg 3.2
31%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−13%NYJ vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.7Avg line 3.5Projection 2.8Ceiling 5.0
The ring shows a
31% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB vs PITReceptions: 1.9 proj, avg 2.0
28%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.8Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.1Avg line 2.5Projection 1.9Ceiling 3.6
The ring shows a
28% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.