QB, Las Vegas Raiders
8
Kirk Cousins
6%
Kirk Cousins has a 6% chance to score a touchdown against Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the 194th highest on this week's board. Las Vegas Raiders are projected for 24.5 points indoors. The model projects passing yards 276.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
−23%BUF defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.02 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.04 expected TDs = 4% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 6% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
8Kirk CousinsQB, LV vs BUFPassing yards: 276 proj, avg 254
65%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Pass attempts
›7.4Yards per attempt
›284Model
›276Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+5%BUF pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 199Avg line 253.5Projection 276Ceiling 354
The ring shows a
65% chance he goes over 253.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 83% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.