RB, Atlanta Falcons
7
Bijan Robinson
63%
Bijan Robinson has a 63% chance to score a touchdown against Chicago Bears in Week 6, the 2nd highest on this week's board. Atlanta Falcons are projected for 24.8 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 108, receptions 4.2, receiving yards 40.
Touchdown breakdown
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
36%Share of team TD chances
−2%CHI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
5TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.36 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.92 expected TDs = 60% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 63% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIRushing yards: 108 proj, avg 104
53%
65.5Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›33.7Team carries
›60%Carry share
›20.2Carries
›5.4Yards per carry
›109Model
›108Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%CHI run D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 39Avg line 104.5Projection 108Ceiling 177
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 104.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 4.0
42%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.9Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.3Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 4.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.9
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 38
54%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.9Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.3Receptions
›9.4Yards per catch
›41Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 40Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 51% | 72% | 60% | 81% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.