TE, Atlanta Falcons
8
Kyle Pitts
22%
Kyle Pitts has a 22% chance to score a touchdown against Chicago Bears in Week 6, the 110th highest on this week's board. Atlanta Falcons are projected for 24.8 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.5, receiving yards 35.
Touchdown breakdown
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−23%CHI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.09 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.18 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
8Kyle PittsTE, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 3.5 proj, avg 3.3
46%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.3Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−13%CHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.5Ceiling 5.9
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Kyle PittsTE, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 35 proj, avg 35
51%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.3Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›35Model
›35Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−13%CHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 34.5Projection 35Ceiling 63
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 34.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 38% | 59% | 51% | 67% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.