WR, Atlanta Falcons
17
Zachariah Branch
12%
Zachariah Branch has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Chicago Bears in Week 6, the 181st highest on this week's board. Atlanta Falcons are projected for 24.8 points indoors. The model projects receptions 2.0.
Touchdown breakdown
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+2%CHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.05 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
17Zachariah BranchWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 1.8
60%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.3Targets
›91%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 1.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 20% | 18% | 23% | 19% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.