WR, Atlanta Falcons
5
Drake London
25%
Drake London has a 25% chance to score a touchdown against Chicago Bears in Week 6, the 88th highest on this week's board. Atlanta Falcons are projected for 24.8 points indoors. The model projects receptions 6.1, receiving yards 101.
Touchdown breakdown
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+2%CHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.07 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
5Drake LondonWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 6.1 proj, avg 5.5
58%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›9.3Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.4Model
›6.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3.0Avg line 5.5Projection 6.1Ceiling 9.3
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Drake LondonWR, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 101 proj, avg 89
57%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›9.3Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.4Receptions
›16.5Yards per catch
›105Model
›101Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 89.5Projection 101Ceiling 181
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 89.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 62% | 93% | 89% | 98% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.