WR, New Orleans Saints
12
Chris Olave
31%
Chris Olave has a 31% chance to score a touchdown against New York Giants in Week 6, the 55th highest on this week's board. New Orleans Saints are projected for 23.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 7.2, receiving yards 92.
Touchdown breakdown
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
+2%NYG defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.12 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.29 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 31% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
12Chris OlaveWR, NO vs NYGReceptions: 7.2 proj, avg 7.2
43%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›24%Target share
›10.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.2Model
›7.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3.7Avg line 7.5Projection 7.2Ceiling 10.6
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 7.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Chris OlaveWR, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 92 proj, avg 94
49%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›24%Target share
›10.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.2Receptions
›12.7Yards per catch
›91Model
›92Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 19Avg line 93.5Projection 92Ceiling 164
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 93.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 84% | 84% | 86% | 91% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.