WR, New Orleans Saints
14
Devaughn Vele
29%
Devaughn Vele has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against New York Giants in Week 6, the 72nd highest on this week's board. New Orleans Saints are projected for 23.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 4.1, receiving yards 42.
Touchdown breakdown
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+2%NYG defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.14 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.35 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
14Devaughn VeleWR, NO vs NYGReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.1
39%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›6.1Targets
›67%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.7
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Devaughn VeleWR, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 42 proj, avg 43
48%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›6.1Targets
›67%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›10.4Yards per catch
›42Model
›42Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 43.5Projection 42Ceiling 76
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 96% | 88% | 89% | 96% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.