TE, New Orleans Saints
87
Noah Fant
24%
Noah Fant has a 24% chance to score a touchdown against New York Giants in Week 6, the 99th highest on this week's board. New Orleans Saints are projected for 23.5 points in 55°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.8, receiving yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
23.5Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−4%NYG defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.10 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.23 expected TDs = 20% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
87Noah FantTE, NO vs NYGReceptions: 2.8 proj, avg 3.0
31%
66.6Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›4.0Targets
›69%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
−2%NYG vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.7Avg line 3.5Projection 2.8Ceiling 5.0
The ring shows a
31% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Noah FantTE, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 24
43%
66.6Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›4.0Targets
›69%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›7.8Yards per catch
›21Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
−2%NYG vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 24.5Projection 22Ceiling 40
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41% | 44% | 57% | – | 67% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.