TE, New Orleans Saints
83
Juwan Johnson
34%
Juwan Johnson has a 34% chance to score a touchdown against New York Giants in Week 6, the 45th highest on this week's board. New Orleans Saints are projected for 23.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 4.9, receiving yards 51.
Touchdown breakdown
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
15%Share of team TD chances
−4%NYG defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.15 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.37 expected TDs = 31% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
83Juwan JohnsonTE, NO vs NYGReceptions: 4.9 proj, avg 4.8
55%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.5Targets
›76%Catch rate
›5.0Model
›4.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
−2%NYG vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.1Avg line 4.5Projection 4.9Ceiling 7.8
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
83Juwan JohnsonTE, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 51
50%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.5Targets
›76%Catch rate
›5.0Receptions
›10.2Yards per catch
›51Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
−2%NYG vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 50.5Projection 51Ceiling 91
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 53% | 62% | 78% | 64% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.