WR, New York Giants
17
Darnell Mooney
17%
Darnell Mooney has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 155th highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.7, receiving yards 24.
Touchdown breakdown
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+8%NO defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.06 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.16 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
17Darnell MooneyWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.6
51%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Darnell MooneyWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 24 proj, avg 22
57%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›14.0Yards per catch
›25Model
›24Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 21.5Projection 24Ceiling 43
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 72% | 44% | 55% | 65% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.