WR, New York Giants
88
Malachi Fields
17%
Malachi Fields has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 153rd highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.0, receiving yards 29.
Touchdown breakdown
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+8%NO defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.08 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.18 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
88Malachi FieldsWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 2.0
31%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
31% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Malachi FieldsWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 29 proj, avg 29
50%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.0Receptions
›15.0Yards per catch
›29Model
›29Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 29Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 81% | 69% | 66% | 72% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.