TE, New York Giants
9
Isaiah Likely
43%
Isaiah Likely has a 43% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 21st highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 6.6, receiving yards 57.
Touchdown breakdown
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
22%Share of team TD chances
−4%NO defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.22 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.49 expected TDs = 39% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 43% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
9Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG vs NOReceptions: 6.6 proj, avg 6.6
49%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Model
›6.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
−2%NO vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3.3Avg line 6.5Projection 6.6Ceiling 9.9
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 6.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 57 proj, avg 57
50%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Receptions
›8.6Yards per catch
›57Model
›57Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
−2%NO vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 56.5Projection 57Ceiling 102
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 56.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49% | 69% | 84% | 66% | 80% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.