WR, New York Giants
1
Malik Nabers
36%
Malik Nabers has a 36% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 40th highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 5.7, receiving yards 73.
Touchdown breakdown
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
+8%NO defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.17 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.46 expected TDs = 37% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 36% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
1Malik NabersWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 5.7 proj, avg 5.3
51%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›5.8Model
›5.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.6Avg line 5.5Projection 5.7Ceiling 8.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Malik NabersWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 73 proj, avg 67
56%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›5.8Receptions
›12.9Yards per catch
›75Model
›73Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 66.5Projection 73Ceiling 131
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52% | 74% | 78% | 76% | 90% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.