TE, Arizona Cardinals
84
Elijah Higgins
14%
Elijah Higgins has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 211th highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.8 points indoors. The model projects receptions 2.5, receiving yards 25.
Touchdown breakdown
19.8Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
−14%LA defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.06 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.11 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
84Elijah HigginsTE, ARI vs LAReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.3
46%
68.3Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.7Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›3.0Targets
›85%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−8%LA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Elijah HigginsTE, ARI vs LAReceiving yards: 25 proj, avg 25
52%
68.3Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.7Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›3.0Targets
›85%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›9.8Yards per catch
›25Model
›25Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−8%LA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 24.5Projection 25Ceiling 45
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 26% | 40% | 36% | 53% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.