WR, Arizona Cardinals
82
Reggie Virgil
17%
Reggie Virgil has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 166th highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.8 points indoors. The model projects receptions 2.3, receiving yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
19.8Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+13%LA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.06 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
82Reggie VirgilWR, ARI vs LAReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.0
41%
68.3Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.7Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.9Targets
›41%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
82Reggie VirgilWR, ARI vs LAReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 29
57%
68.3Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.7Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.9Targets
›41%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›14.2Yards per catch
›34Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 29.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | – | – | 18% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.