TE, Arizona Cardinals
85
Trey McBride
38%
Trey McBride has a 38% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 31st highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 8.2, receiving yards 63.
Touchdown breakdown
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
−14%LA defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+9%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.20 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.34 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 38% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
85Trey McBrideTE, ARI vs LAReceptions: 8.2 proj, avg 8.0
43%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›11.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›8.2Model
›8.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−8%LA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4.5Avg line 8.5Projection 8.2Ceiling 11.8
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 8.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Trey McBrideTE, ARI vs LAReceiving yards: 63 proj, avg 66
46%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›11.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›8.2Receptions
›7.5Yards per catch
›62Model
›63Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−8%LA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 66.5Projection 63Ceiling 112
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 88% | 91% | 97% | 90% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.