RB, Arizona Cardinals
22
Tyler Allgeier
23%
Tyler Allgeier has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 102nd highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.5 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 21, receptions 2.3.
Touchdown breakdown
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−13%LA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.13 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
22Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI vs LARushing yards: 21 proj, avg 24
43%
68.2Projected plays
›32%Run rate
›21.6Team carries
›28%Carry share
›6.0Carries
›3.5Yards per carry
›21Model
›21Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−12%Game script
+4%LA run D
−4%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 23.5Projection 21Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI vs LAReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.4
41%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›5%Target share
›2.5Targets
›92%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−7%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 64% | 36% | 55% | 44% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.