TE, Seattle Seahawks
88
AJ Barner
29%
AJ Barner has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Denver Broncos in Week 6, the 67th highest on this week's board. Seattle Seahawks are projected for 21.5 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.8, receiving yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+6%DEN defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.11 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
88AJ BarnerTE, SEA vs DENReceptions: 2.8 proj, avg 2.7
52%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
+3%DEN vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.8Ceiling 4.9
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88AJ BarnerTE, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 27
51%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›9.7Yards per catch
›27Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
+3%DEN vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 80% | 91% | 90% | 95% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.