WR, Seattle Seahawks
11
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
40%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a 40% chance to score a touchdown against Denver Broncos in Week 6, the 26th highest on this week's board. Seattle Seahawks are projected for 21.5 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 6.7, receiving yards 100.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
23%Share of team TD chances
−8%DEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
7TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.23 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.46 expected TDs = 37% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 40% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA vs DENReceptions: 6.7 proj, avg 7.2
36%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›30%Target share
›9.1Targets
›72%Catch rate
›6.6Model
›6.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 3.4Avg line 7.5Projection 6.7Ceiling 10.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 7.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 100 proj, avg 112
42%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›30%Target share
›9.1Targets
›72%Catch rate
›6.6Receptions
›14.6Yards per catch
›96Model
›100Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 112.5Projection 100Ceiling 179
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 112.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 67% | 87% | 88% | 84% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.