WR, Seattle Seahawks
22
Rashid Shaheed
17%
Rashid Shaheed has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Denver Broncos in Week 6, the 145th highest on this week's board. Seattle Seahawks are projected for 21.5 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.7, receiving yards 17.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−8%DEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.07 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.13 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
22Rashid ShaheedWR, SEA vs DENReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.8
50%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.5Targets
›46%Catch rate
›1.6Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.3
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Rashid ShaheedWR, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 17 proj, avg 19
41%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.5Targets
›46%Catch rate
›1.6Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›16Model
›17Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 19.5Projection 17Ceiling 31
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 56% | 46% | 60% | 46% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.