WR, Seattle Seahawks
10
Cooper Kupp
16%
Cooper Kupp has a 16% chance to score a touchdown against Denver Broncos in Week 6, the 158th highest on this week's board. Seattle Seahawks are projected for 21.5 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.4, receiving yards 28.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−8%DEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.08 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.17 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
10Cooper KuppWR, SEA vs DENReceptions: 2.4 proj, avg 2.5
44%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.6Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.4Ceiling 4.4
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Cooper KuppWR, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 30
45%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.6Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›11.4Yards per catch
›28Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 30.5Projection 28Ceiling 51
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 30.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 43% | 67% | 57% | 81% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.