QB, Seattle Seahawks
14
Sam Darnold
7%
Sam Darnold has a 7% chance to score a touchdown against Denver Broncos in Week 6, the 191st highest on this week's board. Seattle Seahawks are projected for 21.5 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 204.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
+0%DEN defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.06 expected TDs = 5% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 7% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
14Sam DarnoldQB, SEA vs DENPassing yards: 204 proj, avg 214
41%
57.6Projected plays
›53%Pass rate
›30.6Pass attempts
›6.6Yards per attempt
›201Model
›204Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%DEN pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 146Avg line 213.5Projection 204Ceiling 261
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 213.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | – | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.