WR, Dallas Cowboys
88
CeeDee Lamb
39%
CeeDee Lamb has a 39% chance to score a touchdown against Green Bay Packers in Week 6, the 30th highest on this week's board. Dallas Cowboys are projected for 25.8 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 7.0, receiving yards 88.
Touchdown breakdown
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
−8%GB defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.17 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.42 expected TDs = 34% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 39% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
88CeeDee LambWR, DAL vs GBReceptions: 7.0 proj, avg 7.0
40%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›10.0Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.0Model
›7.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3.6Avg line 7.5Projection 7.0Ceiling 10.4
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 7.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88CeeDee LambWR, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 88 proj, avg 94
45%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›10.0Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.0Receptions
›12.4Yards per catch
›86Model
›88Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 94.5Projection 88Ceiling 158
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 94.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 75% | 82% | 86% | 57% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.