QB, Dallas Cowboys
4
Dak Prescott
8%
Dak Prescott has a 8% chance to score a touchdown against Green Bay Packers in Week 6, the 189th highest on this week's board. Dallas Cowboys are projected for 25.8 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 267.
Touchdown breakdown
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
3%Share of team TD chances
−23%GB defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.03 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.06 expected TDs = 6% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 8% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
4Dak PrescottQB, DAL vs GBPassing yards: 267 proj, avg 273
47%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Pass attempts
›6.6Yards per attempt
›266Model
›267Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−4%GB pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 192Avg line 272.5Projection 267Ceiling 343
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 272.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.