WR, Dallas Cowboys
3
George Pickens
29%
George Pickens has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Green Bay Packers in Week 6, the 68th highest on this week's board. Dallas Cowboys are projected for 25.8 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 5.4, receiving yards 71.
Touchdown breakdown
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
−8%GB defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.12 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
3George PickensWR, DAL vs GBReceptions: 5.4 proj, avg 5.4
45%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›8.3Targets
›64%Catch rate
›5.4Model
›5.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 2.4Avg line 5.5Projection 5.4Ceiling 8.3
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3George PickensWR, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 71 proj, avg 76
45%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›8.3Targets
›64%Catch rate
›5.4Receptions
›13.0Yards per catch
›70Model
›71Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 76.5Projection 71Ceiling 128
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 76.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 76% | 85% | 86% | 88% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.