WR, Dallas Cowboys
19
Ryan Flournoy
22%
Ryan Flournoy has a 22% chance to score a touchdown against Green Bay Packers in Week 6, the 108th highest on this week's board. Dallas Cowboys are projected for 25.8 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.2, receiving yards 35.
Touchdown breakdown
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−8%GB defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.22 expected TDs = 20% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
19Ryan FlournoyWR, DAL vs GBReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
39%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.2Targets
›61%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Ryan FlournoyWR, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 35 proj, avg 38
46%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.2Targets
›61%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›10.9Yards per catch
›35Model
›35Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 35Ceiling 64
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 76% | 66% | 74% | 68% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.