RB, Dallas Cowboys
33
Javonte Williams
61%
Javonte Williams has a 61% chance to score a touchdown against Green Bay Packers in Week 6, the 3rd highest on this week's board. Dallas Cowboys are projected for 25.8 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 68, receptions 3.1.
Touchdown breakdown
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
36%Share of team TD chances
+25%GB defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
7TDs this season
−9%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.36 × 1.25 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
1.20 expected TDs = 70% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 61% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
33Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL vs GBRushing yards: 68 proj, avg 63
56%
61.5Projected plays
›34%Run rate
›21.2Team carries
›71%Carry share
›15.1Carries
›4.6Yards per carry
›70Model
›68Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+5%GB run D
+7%GB vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 25Avg line 63.5Projection 68Ceiling 112
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 63.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
33Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL vs GBReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 2.9
60%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.8Targets
›84%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
+14%GB vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 2.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 80% | 76% | 74% | 85% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.