WR, Green Bay Packers
9
Christian Watson
39%
Christian Watson has a 39% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 29th highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.3 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 4.5, receiving yards 84.
Touchdown breakdown
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
22%Share of team TD chances
+2%DAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
6TDs this season
−8%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.22 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.63 expected TDs = 47% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 39% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
9Christian WatsonWR, GB vs DALReceptions: 4.5 proj, avg 4.5
47%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›7.0Targets
›65%Catch rate
›4.5Model
›4.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.8Avg line 4.5Projection 4.5Ceiling 7.2
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Christian WatsonWR, GB vs DALReceiving yards: 84 proj, avg 81
52%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›7.0Targets
›65%Catch rate
›4.5Receptions
›18.9Yards per catch
›86Model
›84Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 81.5Projection 84Ceiling 152
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 81.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 90% | 80% | 68% | 80% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.