TE, Green Bay Packers
85
Tucker Kraft
35%
Tucker Kraft has a 35% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 42nd highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.3 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 4.3, receiving yards 56.
Touchdown breakdown
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+6%DAL defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.11 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.36 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 35% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
85Tucker KraftTE, GB vs DALReceptions: 4.3 proj, avg 4.0
44%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.2Targets
›71%Catch rate
›4.4Model
›4.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+3%DAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.3Ceiling 7.0
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Tucker KraftTE, GB vs DALReceiving yards: 56 proj, avg 50
58%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.2Targets
›71%Catch rate
›4.4Receptions
›13.2Yards per catch
›59Model
›56Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+3%DAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 49.5Projection 56Ceiling 101
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 98% | 76% | 92% | 77% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.