QB, Green Bay Packers
10
Jordan Love
6%
Jordan Love has a 6% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 192nd highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.3 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 272.
Touchdown breakdown
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
−23%DAL defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.02 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.04 expected TDs = 4% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 6% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
10Jordan LoveQB, GB vs DALPassing yards: 272 proj, avg 259
58%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Pass attempts
›6.8Yards per attempt
›277Model
›272Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 196Avg line 259.5Projection 272Ceiling 349
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 259.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.