WR, Green Bay Packers
0
Matthew Golden
37%
Matthew Golden has a 37% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 35th highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.3 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.8, receiving yards 62.
Touchdown breakdown
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+2%DAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.16 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.48 expected TDs = 38% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
0Matthew GoldenWR, GB vs DALReceptions: 3.8 proj, avg 3.7
53%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.9Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.3Avg line 3.5Projection 3.8Ceiling 6.3
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Matthew GoldenWR, GB vs DALReceiving yards: 62 proj, avg 58
53%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.9Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›16.4Yards per catch
›63Model
›62Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 58.5Projection 62Ceiling 111
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 86% | 82% | 88% | 77% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.