RB, Green Bay Packers
26
Kaleb Johnson
22%
Kaleb Johnson has a 22% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 107th highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.3 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 32.
Touchdown breakdown
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+14%DAL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−5%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.09 × 1.14 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.32 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
26Kaleb JohnsonRB, GB vs DALRushing yards: 32 proj, avg 27
63%
60.3Projected plays
›33%Run rate
›19.6Team carries
›39%Carry share
›7.6Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›34Model
›32Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
+2%Game script
+8%DAL run D
+4%DAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 26.5Projection 32Ceiling 52
The ring shows a
63% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 27% | 36% | 28% | 15% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.