QB, Houston Texans
7
C.J. Stroud
15%
C.J. Stroud has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, the 166th highest on this week's board. Houston Texans are projected for 20.0 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects passing yards 255.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+0%JAX defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.06 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.14 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
7C.J. StroudQB, HOU vs JAXPassing yards: 255 proj, avg 255
50%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Pass attempts
›6.6Yards per attempt
›255Model
›255Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+1%JAX pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 183Avg line 255.5Projection 255Ceiling 327
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 255.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.