RB, Houston Texans
4
Woody Marks
51%
Woody Marks has a 51% chance to score a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, the 10th highest on this week's board. Houston Texans are projected for 20.0 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects rushing yards 52, receptions 2.5, receiving yards 16.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
34%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.34 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.65 expected TDs = 48% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 51% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outRushing yards: 52 proj, avg 57
41%
60.3Projected plays
›36%Run rate
›21.8Team carries
›73%Carry share
›16.0Carries
›3.1Yards per carry
›50Model
›52Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−2%Game script
−8%JAX run D
−4%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 19Avg line 57.5Projection 52Ceiling 85
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 57.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
45%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−7%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outReceiving yards: 16 proj, avg 16
51%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›6.4Yards per catch
›16Model
›16Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−7%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 15.5Projection 16Ceiling 28
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 15.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51% | 48% | 37% | 44% | 85% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.