WR, Houston Texans
12
Nico Collins
29%
Nico Collins has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, the 71st highest on this week's board. Houston Texans are projected for 20.0 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 5.3, receiving yards 78.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.14 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.26 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
12Nico CollinsWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 5.3 proj, avg 5.4
44%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›8.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›5.3Model
›5.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.4Avg line 5.5Projection 5.3Ceiling 8.3
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Nico CollinsWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 78 proj, avg 78
51%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›8.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›5.3Receptions
›14.8Yards per catch
›78Model
›78Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 77.5Projection 78Ceiling 140
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 77.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | – | – | 69% | 71% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.