WR, Houston Texans
19
Xavier Hutchinson
18%
Xavier Hutchinson has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, the 144th highest on this week's board. Houston Texans are projected for 20.0 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 2.7, receiving yards 38.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.07 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
19Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.8
50%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›53%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 38 proj, avg 38
49%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›53%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›14.1Yards per catch
›37Model
›38Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 38.5Projection 38Ceiling 68
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 38.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 81% | 54% | 31% | 41% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.