TE, Houston Texans
86
Dalton Schultz
19%
Dalton Schultz has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, the 127th highest on this week's board. Houston Texans are projected for 20.0 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 4.5, receiving yards 46.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−4%JAX defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.07 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
86Dalton SchultzTE, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 4.5 proj, avg 4.8
47%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.8Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.4Model
›4.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−2%JAX vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.8Avg line 4.5Projection 4.5Ceiling 7.2
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Dalton SchultzTE, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 46 proj, avg 48
49%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.8Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.4Receptions
›10.5Yards per catch
›46Model
›46Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−2%JAX vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 47.5Projection 46Ceiling 83
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 68% | 54% | 64% | 52% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.