TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
80
Darnell Washington
20%
Darnell Washington has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, the 127th highest on this week's board. Pittsburgh Steelers are projected for 21.0 points in 76°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.4, receiving yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+6%TB defense vs TEs
−8%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.09 × 1.06 × 0.92 × 1.08 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
80Darnell WashingtonTE, PIT vs TBReceptions: 2.4 proj, avg 2.3
42%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›71%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
+3%TB vs TEs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.4Ceiling 4.4
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
80Darnell WashingtonTE, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 27
51%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›71%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›11.2Yards per catch
›27Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
+3%TB vs TEs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 27Ceiling 48
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 53% | 76% | 71% | 63% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.