WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
4
DK Metcalf
24%
DK Metcalf has a 24% chance to score a touchdown against Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, the 95th highest on this week's board. Pittsburgh Steelers are projected for 21.0 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.7, receiving yards 45.
Touchdown breakdown
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−3%TB defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.10 × 0.97 × 0.92 × 0.96 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
4DK MetcalfWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.7 proj, avg 3.9
51%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.7Targets
›54%Catch rate
›3.6Model
›3.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.7Ceiling 6.2
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4DK MetcalfWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 45 proj, avg 50
44%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.7Targets
›54%Catch rate
›3.6Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›44Model
›45Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 49.5Projection 45Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 97% | 95% | 97% | 92% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.