WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
17
Germie Bernard
20%
Germie Bernard has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, the 125th highest on this week's board. Pittsburgh Steelers are projected for 21.0 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.2, receiving yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−3%TB defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.08 × 0.97 × 0.92 × 1.04 =
0.17 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
17Germie BernardWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
39%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Germie BernardWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 35
46%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›10.3Yards per catch
›33Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | 79% | 27% | 40% | 92% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.