TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
88
Pat Freiermuth
37%
Pat Freiermuth has a 37% chance to score a touchdown against Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, the 37th highest on this week's board. Pittsburgh Steelers are projected for 21.0 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.4, receiving yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
+6%TB defense vs TEs
−8%Weather
+4%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.20 × 1.06 × 0.92 × 1.04 =
0.44 expected TDs = 36% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
88Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.4
45%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.6Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
+3%TB vs TEs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 33
48%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.6Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›9.4Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
+3%TB vs TEs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 33.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 33.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 66% | 60% | 75% | 68% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.