RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
30
Jaylen Warren
46%
Jaylen Warren has a 46% chance to score a touchdown against Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, the 15th highest on this week's board. Pittsburgh Steelers are projected for 21.0 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 72, receptions 3.3, receiving yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
22%Share of team TD chances
−13%TB defense vs RBs
+3%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+9%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.22 × 0.87 × 1.03 × 1.08 =
0.47 expected TDs = 38% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 46% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBRushing yards: 72 proj, avg 73
48%
59.0Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›20.6Team carries
›71%Carry share
›14.6Carries
›4.9Yards per carry
›71Model
›72Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
−7%TB run D
−4%TB vs RBs
+2%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 26Avg line 73.5Projection 72Ceiling 118
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 73.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.3 proj, avg 3.3
42%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−7%TB vs RBs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.3Ceiling 5.6
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 36
46%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›3.3Receptions
›9.9Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−7%TB vs RBs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 71% | 90% | 97% | 87% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.