WR, Cleveland Browns
12
Denzel Boston
27%
Denzel Boston has a 27% chance to score a touchdown against Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, the 77th highest on this week's board. Cleveland Browns are projected for 18.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.2, receiving yards 65.
Touchdown breakdown
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
19%Share of team TD chances
−13%BAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.19 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.32 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
12Denzel BostonWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
40%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.2Targets
›51%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Denzel BostonWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 65 proj, avg 66
49%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.2Targets
›51%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›20.3Yards per catch
›65Model
›65Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 66.5Projection 65Ceiling 117
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 93% | 89% | 95% | 91% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.