WR, Cleveland Browns
3
Jerry Jeudy
12%
Jerry Jeudy has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, the 177th highest on this week's board. Cleveland Browns are projected for 18.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.5, receiving yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−13%BAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.05 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.09 expected TDs = 8% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
3Jerry JeudyWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
46%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.2Targets
›48%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jerry JeudyWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 28
50%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.2Targets
›48%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›10.9Yards per catch
›27Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 27.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 59% | 51% | 38% | 81% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.