WR, Cleveland Browns
1
KC Concepcion
22%
KC Concepcion has a 22% chance to score a touchdown against Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, the 109th highest on this week's board. Cleveland Browns are projected for 18.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.4, receiving yards 28.
Touchdown breakdown
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−13%BAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.09 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
1KC ConcepcionWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.6
45%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1KC ConcepcionWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 30
47%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.4Receptions
›8.1Yards per catch
›28Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 66% | 86% | 92% | 16% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.