RB, Cleveland Browns
10
Quinshon Judkins
47%
Quinshon Judkins has a 47% chance to score a touchdown against Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, the 14th highest on this week's board. Cleveland Browns are projected for 18.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 48, receptions 3.0, receiving yards 18.
Touchdown breakdown
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
28%Share of team TD chances
−2%BAL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.28 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.54 expected TDs = 42% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 47% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALRushing yards: 48 proj, avg 50
46%
58.5Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›63%Carry share
›14.9Carries
›3.2Yards per carry
›48Model
›48Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%BAL run D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 50.5Projection 48Ceiling 79
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 2.9
57%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.5Targets
›85%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 2.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 18 proj, avg 17
51%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.5Targets
›85%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›6.0Yards per catch
›18Model
›18Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 18Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 67% | 51% | 66% | 53% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.