TE, Cleveland Browns
44
Harold Fannin Jr.
34%
Harold Fannin Jr. has a 34% chance to score a touchdown against Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, the 47th highest on this week's board. Cleveland Browns are projected for 18.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 4.2, receiving yards 40.
Touchdown breakdown
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+6%BAL defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.16 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.34 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE vs BALReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 4.0
40%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›4.2Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
+3%BAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 4.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.8
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 37
54%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›4.2Receptions
›9.6Yards per catch
›41Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
+3%BAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 40Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 86% | 86% | 89% | 93% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.